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Project Information

Project Information


Adapting to Shorter Time Cycles: A Workshop Series for the United States Air Force


Project Scope:

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will establish an ad hoc planning committee to conduct an investigation of the changing paradigm of time and knowledge in modern day warfare. The workshops will feature invited presentations and discussions to meet each workshop's objectives.

(1) Presenters at the first workshop will identify how the United States Air Force (USAF) adjusted its capabilities - in terms of systems, doctrine, training, etc. - to selected past shifts caused by changes in operational timing. Workshop participants will catalogue what was changed and discuss timing, sequence, effectiveness, limitations, lessons learned, and other attributes of value.
(2) The second workshop will examine the same past shifts discussed in the first workshop and participants will identify where there is advantage to synchronizing rates of change with the threat/adversaries or when there is an advantage to desynchronize rates of change. Participants will discuss how this may change doctrine and concepts of operations for future Air Force operations and what general lessons may be extracted.
(3) The third workshop will discuss implications to doctrine, concept of operations, and command and control of recent acceleration of battle space operations, arising from wide-scale digitization, large-scale sensing, and faster technologies (e.g. hypersonics). Participants will attempt to characterize a general framework for adapting to fundamental changes in the "time constants" of conflict.

 A proceedings of the presentations and discussions at the workshops will be prepared by a designated rapporteur in accordance with institutional guidelines.

Status: Current

PIN: DEPS-AFSB-19-03

RSO: Coyle, George

Board(s)/Committee(s):

Air Force Studies Board

Topic(s):

Conflict and Security Issues
Engineering and Technology



Geographic Focus:

Committee Membership


Deborah Westphal - (Chair)
Ms. Deborah L. Westphal is Chairman of the Board of the strategy advisory firm, Toffler Associates. Recognized globally for her expertise in strategy, innovation and organizational transformation, Ms. Westphal helps organizations understand the forces that drive change in their industries and the world, and identifies the best courses of action to create enduring success. Ms. Westphal came to Toffler Associates in 1999 after 13 years as a senior government official in the U.S. Air Force. Her work in the area of technology and advanced concepts for air vehicles, missiles and space systems have been recognized with numerous awards from the California Air Force Association, a USAF Meritorious Civilian Award, an AFA Los Angeles Chapter Civilian of the Year award, and an Air Force Association Medal of Merit. Ms Westphal has also served on the US Army Science Board, the National Defense Industrial Association Greater Los Angeles Chapter Board of Directors, and the Air Force Association, Schriever Chapter 147 Board of Directors.
Ted F. Bowlds
Lieutenant General Ted F. Bowlds (USAF, retired) is currently the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) for IAI North America. In this capacity, he is responsible for program management, engineering, and technology transfer. Prior to this job, Ted served as the chief information officer (CIO) for FlightSafety, International. As CIO, Ted was responsible for the planning and execution of a $30 million annual budget and maintained a steady 99.9% system reliability. He also served as the chief technology officer responsible for innovation and the introduction of market-leading capabilities. During his 36-year career in the United States Air Force and subsequent experience in industry, Ted led multiple large-scale, complex procurement activities, each dependent upon strong ethics and solid research foundation. The programs include the F-117 stealth fighter, B-2 bomber, and C-17 transport. As Commander of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), he was responsible for the diverse research undertaken by AFRL ranging from microelectronics, human factors, medical, aeronautics, computers, satellites, and power generation. His last assignment on active duty was as the Commander of the Electronic Systems Center and Program Executive Officer (PEO) for Air Force information technology procurements, applications, and systems. The portfolio of programs being executed included command and control, surveillance, and information technology. General Bowlds is a board member of the Air Force Retired Officers Community (a continuing care retirement community) and holds the positions of vice chairman and chairman of the strategic planning committee. He is also a member of the Mississippi State Research Technology Advisory Group, the DoD Systems Engineering Research Council, and the Air Force Studies Board. Ted holds a Master of Science in electrical engineering, a Master of Science in engineering management and a Ph.D. in systems engineering, he is a graduate of the USAF Test Pilot School Flight Test Engineer course and has attended numerous leadership and management courses.
Joseph A. Engelbrecht, Jr
Dr. Joseph A. (Jae) Engelbrecht Jr. is President and CEO of Engelbrecht Associates LLC, and an Advisor and former Partner at Toffler Associates. He advises senior executives on practical strategies for business and government for mission success. Dr. Engelbrecht served in the U.S. Air Force through the rank of Colonel. As an intelligence officer and platoon leader in Vietnam, he led the “Bottleneck” interdiction campaign to slow and destroy traffic on the Ho Chi Min trail. Later he led a multi-staged effort to track tank convoys at night and feed data to recce and “Wolf FACs” to attack armor hidden under canopy by day. He aided Linebacker II targeting before redeploying to Thailand. He also served as an aide-de-camp in Taiwan, a missile and senior standardization-evaluation commander, an Air Force planner, an international political affairs officer, a Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) representative and negotiator, and a war college professor. He was a leader of the SPACECAST 2030 study. Dr. Engelbrecht was the research director of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force’s 2025 Study. His 2025 teams identified 43 new capabilities and the services eventually funded over 90%. Recognizing the increasing value of knowledge systems, study leaders recommended the USAF expand its vision of Global Reach and Power to include Global Vigilance. As a JCS representative, he advised the U.S. delegation and subsequently led teams negotiating the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), and START II, and then hopped between Geneva, Moscow, Minsk, Kiev, Tokyo, and Washington to devise ways for former Soviet Union states to dismantle their arsenals. He was the U.S. government and JCS policy lead on the first START inspection. President George H.W. Bush commended him, and he became one of the first non-diplomats decorated by the Secretary of State. Next, Jae joined Alvin and Heidi Toffler, to form Toffler Associates, a strategic advisory firm that helps CEOs, senior executives and general/flag officers lead their organizations to success in a rapidly changing market and environment. Jae Engelbrecht has over 40 years of experience being at the bifurcation point of change and advising executives on how to lead, grow and succeed in new, emerging conditions. He has advised senior executives in business and government in the United States and around the globe. In the early 1990’s, he advised Bell company (now Verizon) executives on the impact of the Internet when much of their business ran on mainframes. He created a future market assessment to quantify the value of modular repairable satellites, a decade before the technology was viable. He also convinced another aerospace giant to lean forward on their technical design for a new satellite constellation to meet emerging customer needs; the firm won the multi-billion-dollar competition. Before “cyber” entered our lexicon, he devised a process for mitigating e-risk or the loss of business caused by cyber-attack or disruption for DARPA. Anticipating a 911 type attack, he advised Intelligence Agencies on the changing security environment and served with a panel commissioned by the Secretary of Defense and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director to design a new remote sensing strategy for the United States. After 911, every U.S. intelligence agency sought Jae’s advice. He served as executive coach and leadership counsel for the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Reconnaissance Agency, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. He led the development of a global posture strategy for the National Security Agency that created the initiative to develop a U.S. Cyber Command. Trying to understand how he recognized emerging issues, the CIA asked his team to identify the top 20 issues not on their radar without acknowledging their current efforts; each of the issues Jae highlighted inaugurated new agency initiatives. Anticipating the challenges later posed by conflicts in the Middle East, he advised the Commandant of the Marine Corps on how to build “deep coalitions” between governments, global firms, nongovernmental organizations, military elements, and local organizations to rapidly adapt and shape approaches for emerging problems that span boundaries and traditional lanes in the road to the future. Dr. Engelbrecht earned a B.A. in east Asian history and Chinese from the University of Maryland, a M.A. in Public Administration from the University of Northern Colorado, a Master of Philosophy and a Ph.D. in international relations and political science from Columbia University. He completed the leadership and executive development program at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Dr. Engelbrecht is a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the World Futures Society and life member of the Air Force Association and the National Eagle Scout Association. He is the author of Alternate Futures for 2025 and multiple articles including in Space Imaging, Earth Imaging Journal, Military Operations Research Society (MORS), Interfaces, Airpower Journal (Netherlands), Symposium on Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (Canada) and has been interviewed for such publications as Fortune, The Washington Post, and Generation (Turkey). Dr. Engelbrecht has assessed leadership, executive decision making, and strategy processes and advised executives at organizations including Verizon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, Raytheon, Harris, Levi, 3M, XEROX, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Motorola, HP, Microsoft, AT&T, USPS, the GAO, Army Corps of Engineers, each of the U.S. military services and the top seven U.S. intelligence agencies as well as dozens of non-profits and non-governmental organizations.
Brendan B. Godfrey
Dr. Brendan Godfrey is a visiting senior research scientist at the University of Maryland, where he conducts studies on numerical simulation of plasmas, participates in committees of the National Academy of Sciences, and served as advisor to the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research. Previously, he was director of the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, responsible for its nearly half billion dollar basic research program. He was an Air Force officer at Kirtland Air Force Base from 1970 to 1972, performing plasma research. He began his civilian career at Los Alamos National Laboratory, establishing its intense particle beam research program. He then managed and conducted intense microwave and particle beam research at Mission Research Corp., becoming vice president and regional manager. In 1989, he returned to the Air Force as civilian chief scientist of the Weapons Laboratory. Later responsibilities included director of Phillips Laboratory high power microwave research; director of the 1500-person Armstrong Laboratory; director of plans at the Air Force Research Laboratory, and deputy director of Brooks City-Base. Known for his contributions to computational plasma theory and applications, he is author of more than 200 publications and reports. He also has served on numerous professional and civic committees. Dr. Godfrey received his B.S. from the University of Minnesota and Ph.D. from Princeton University. He is a fellow of the IEEE and of the APS.
Richard P. Hallion
Dr. Richard P. Hallion is Senior Advisor with Science and Technology Policy Institute. Dr. Hallion received his B.A. and Ph.D. in history from the University of Maryland. He also graduated from executive training programs at the Federal Executive Institute, and the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. He has been a Curator at the National Air and Space Museum, Smithsonian Institution; a Historian with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. Air Force; a Policy Analyst for the Secretary of the Air Force; Senior Advisor for Air and Space Issues, for the Air Force’s Directorate for Security, Counterintelligence, and Special Programs; and Special Advisor for Aerospace Technology, for the Air Force Chief Scientist, and was a founding Trustee of Florida Polytechnic University. He also serves as a Research Associate in Aeronautics for the National Air and Space Museum, and is a member of the Executive Committee of the U.S. Air Force Armament Museum.. He is a Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society, and a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society.
Daniel E. Hastings
Dr. Daniel Hastings (NAE) is Department Head, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics and a professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Dr. Hastings, who earned a Ph.D. and an S.M, from MIT in Aeronautics and Astronautics in 1980 and 1978 respectively, received a B.A. in Mathematics from Oxford University in England in 1976. He joined the MIT faculty as an assistant professor in 1985, advancing to associate professor in 1988 and full professor in 1993. As professor of aeronautics and astronautics and engineering systems, Dr. Hastings has taught courses and seminars in plasma physics, rocket propulsion, advanced space power and propulsion systems, aerospace policy, technology and policy, and space systems engineering. Dr. Hastings served as chief scientist to the U.S. Air Force from 1997 to 1999. In that role, he served as chief scientific adviser to the chief of staff and the secretary and provided assessments on a wide range of scientific and technical issues affecting the Air Force mission. He was the chair of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board from 2002-2005. He led several influential studies on where the Air Force should invest in space, global energy projection, and options for a science and technology workforce for the 21st century. He is a member of the NAE and a fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), International Astronautical Federation (IAF), and International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE).
Gregory S. Martin, USAF Ret
Gen Gregory Martin (USAF, retired) is currently a consultant at GS Martin Consulting, Inc. General Martin retired from Air Force Materiel Command, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio as commander on September 1, 2005. He oversaw the research, development, test and evaluation, and provided acquisition management services and logistics support necessary to keep Air Force weapon systems ready for war. He earned a B.S. degree in geography from the U.S. Air Force Academy in 1970 and an M.S. degree in business management from Central Michigan University in 1977. He entered the Air Force in June 1970 with a commission from the U.S. Air Force Academy. In addition to flying 161 combat missions in Southeast Asia, he commanded the 67th Tactical Fighter Squadron, the 479th Tactical Training Wing, and the 33rd and 1st fighter wings. He also served as Vice Director of the Joint Staff's Force Structure and Resources Directorate, Director of Operational Requirements for the U.S. Air Force, and Principal Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition. Before assuming his last position, General Martin served as the Commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Allied Air Forces Northern Europe. General Martin is a command pilot with more than 4,600 flying hours in various aircraft, including the F-4, F-15, C-20 and C-21.
William F. Powers
Dr. William F. Powers retired as Vice President-Research from Ford Motor Company on December 31, 2000; he had been with the company since 1979. During his career at Ford, he served as the first Director of Product and Manufacturing Systems in North American Automotive Operations, Program Manager, Car Product Development Specialty Car Programs, where he was responsible for the Thunderbird, Cougar, and Mark VIII vehicles, and Executive Director of Information Technology. On February 1, 1996, he assumed the responsibilities of Vice President-Research. Dr. Powers received his B.S. in Aerospace Engineering in 1963 from the University of Florida and his Ph.D. in Engineering Mechanics in 1968 from the University of Texas at Austin. At NASA Marshall Space Flight Center from 1960-1965, he was involved with the development of the Saturn Booster guidance system and Apollo mission analyses. He consulted on the Space Shuttle Program with the NASA Johnson Space Center during the period 1970-1979, where he developed a methodology for optimizing the temperature constrained shuttle reentry trajectory. From 1968-1980, he was a Professor of Aerospace Engineering and Computer, Information and Control Engineering at the University of Michigan, where he chaired 15 PhD theses. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering (1993); a Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (1992); the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (2001); the International Federation of Automatic Control (2005, inaugural class of IFAC Fellows); the Society of Automotive Engineers (2002); the Intelligent Transportation Systems of America Hall of Fame (2015); and a foreign member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (1992). He has served on the Sandia Nuclear Weapons External Advisory Board (now the Nuclear Deterrence External Advisory Board) since 2005, and since retirement has completed a six year term on the National Academies Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, a five year term on the Sandia National Security Advisory Panel, multi-year terms on the DOE Laboratory Operations Board, National Academies Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies, the National Academies Committee on America’s Energy Future Energy Efficiency Panel, the NRC Panel on Review of the Engineering Laboratory at the NIST, and the DOE EE&RE Advanced Manufacturing Office Peer Review Committee. He served on the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) Working Group on the Energy Technology Innovation System in 2010. He is a member of the New World Angels, which is a group of private investors dedicated to providing equity capital to early-stage entrepreneurial companies in the state of Florida. He has received Distinguished Alumnus awards from the University of Florida (2001) and the University of Texas at Austin Engineering College (1993), where he has also delivered commencement addresses, the Control Practice Award from the American Automatic Control Council (2004), and the Nichols Medal from the International Federation of Automatic Control (2005).
Julie J. Ryan
Dr. Julie J.C.H. Ryan is the CEO of Wyndrose Technical Group, having retired from academia in 2017. Her last position in academia was professor of cybersecurity and information assurance at the U.S. National Defense University. Prior to that, she was tenured faculty at the George Washington University and a visiting scholar at the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST). Dr. Ryan came to academia from a career in an industry that began when she left government service. Upon graduating from the U.S. Air Force Academy, Dr. Ryan served as a signals intelligence officer in the Air Force, and then as a military intelligence officer with the Defense Intelligence Agency. After moving to industry, she worked in a variety of positions, including systems engineer, consultant, and senior staff scientist with companies including Sterling Software, Booz Allen & Hamilton, Welkin Associates, and TRW/ESL. She is the author of several books, including Defending Your Digital Assets Against Hackers, Crackers, Spies, and Thieves (McGraw Hill 2000), and is a fellow of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS). At Wyndrose Technical Group, she focuses on futures forecasting and strategic planning with an eye on technology surprise and disruption. She has been a member of numerous National Academies’ committees including the Committee on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter Symposium and the Committee on Human-Automation Interaction Consideration for Unmanned Aerial System Integration. She holds the degree of D.Sc. in engineering management from The George Washington University.
Michael I. Yarymovych
Dr. Michael I. Yarymovych (NAE) is President of Sarasota Space Associates. Until the end of 2013 he was Senior Fellow of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) and has served on numerous SAB and Defense Science Board studies. He retired from the Boeing Company in 1998 as Vice President of International Technology in the Information, Space and Defense Systems organization. Prior to the merger of Rockwell International with Boeing he was Vice President and Associate Center Director of the Systems Development Center, which focused the Corporation’s resources on new high technology advanced concepts requiring the skills of many divisions. He had joined Rockwell in 1977 as Vice President, Engineering of the Aerospace Operations in leadership positions of programs such as the Space Shuttle, Global Positioning System, Ballistic Missile Defence, and the B1B strategic aircraft. He started his engineering career in 1959 at AVCO R&D Division leading projects in electric propelled space systems. In 1962 he joined NASA Headquarters as Assistant Director of Systems Engineering in the Apollo project and later moved to the Air Force as Technical Director of the Air Force Manned Orbital Laboratory, and Deputy for Requirements to the Assistant Secretary for Research and Development. In 1970 he was posted in Paris as Director of the NATO Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development (AGARD), which was later changed to be the NATO Research and Technology Organization (RTO). In the 1990s he was elected Chairman of AGARD and later of RTO. From 1975 to 1977 he served as the Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force which was followed by a Presidential appointment to be the Assistant Administrator of the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration responsible for field operations of the national and government owned energy (former AEC) laboratories. From 1991 to 1997 Dr. Yarymovych was President of the International Academy of Astronautics, of which he was also vice president for Scientific Programs since 1985. He is an Honorary Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), and recipient of the Distinguished Service Award. He served as president of the AIAA from 1982 to 1983. He is Fellow of the American Astronautical Society, Honorary Member of the French Air and Space Academy. He is four-time recipient of the Air Force Exceptional Civilian Service Award, the service’s highest decoration; he also received the ERDA Distinguished Service Award, the Von Karman Medal from the NATO Research and Technology Organization, and the Theodor Von Karman Award from the International Academy of Astronautics. Dr. Yarymovych holds a B. Eng Sc. in Aeronautical Engineering magna cum laude, New York University; M.S. in Engineering Mechanics, Columbia University; D. Eng. Sc. in Engineering Mechanics, Columbia University. Dr. Yarymovych is the author of many publications on topics ranging from lunar mapping to strategic defense policy. He was the Associate Editor of the Encyclopedia of Space Science and Technology published by Wiley and Sons in 2003. For several years, he translated the Russian journal Applied Mathematics and Mechanics.
George Coyle - (Staff Officer)

Events


Event Type :  
-

Description :   

Workshop #3 of the Adapting to Shorter Time Cycles


Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  George Coyle
Contact Email:  gcoyle@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  (202) 334-2567

Agenda
-
Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
No

Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-

Event Type :  
-

Description :   

Workshop # 2 of the Adapting to Shorter Time Cycles


Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  George Coyle
Contact Email:  gcoyle@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  (202) 334-2567

Agenda
-
Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
No

Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-

Event Type :  
-

Description :   

Workshop #1 of the Adapting to Shorter Time Cycles


Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  George Coyle
Contact Email:  gcoyle@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  (202) 334-2567

Agenda
-
Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
No

Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-

Publications

Publications

No data present.