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Project Information

Project Information


Assessing the Risks of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration


Project Scope:

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will appoint an ad hoc committee with representation from industry, academia and government to undertake a study to evaluate the potential of probabilistic assessments of risks and other risk assessment methods for streamlining the process of integrating unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the national airspace system (NAS) and identify supporting research and development opportunities in this field. The committee will execute the following tasks:

  • Consider recent, current, and planned FAA efforts to evaluate the risks associated with the integration of UAS into the national airspace system and risk assessment methods.  
  • Consider mechanisms for assessing severity and likelihood metrics required for probabilistic and other appropriate risk assessment methods based on UAS design characteristics (e.g., weight, speed, materials, and technologies) and operational characteristics (e.g., airspace characteristics, population density,  and whether they are piloted remotely or autonomously).
  • Determine how the scope and detail required of risk assessment methods may vary for different sizes and operations of UAS (e.g., Part 107 vs. Part 91 operations) and whether certain classes of UAS (micro, etc.) could be operated with the assumption they are inherently low risk.
  • Evaluate other methods that could reasonably be used to evaluate the risks of UAS integration in the NAS. What are the benefits and limitations of these alternate methods?  How do these alternate methods compare to probabilistic risk assessment methods as well as severity and likelihood metrics traditionally used by the FAA for manned aircraft?
  • What state of the art assessment methods are currently in use by industry, academia, other agencies of the U.S. government, or other international civil aviation authorities that could benefit the FAA?
  • What are the key advancements or goals for performance-based expanded UAS operations in the NAS that can reasonably be achieved through the application of the recommended risk assessment methods in the short-term (1-5 years), mid-term (5-10 years) and the longer-term (10-20 years).
  • What are the key challenges or barriers that must be overcome to implement the recommended risk assessment methods in order to attain these key goals?
  • In light of ongoing research and likely advances in risk assessment methods by other organizations, what research and development projects related to risk assessment methods should be the highest priority for the FAA?
  • Are there other related recommendations to streamline FAA processes (not governed by regulation) that would either improve the effectiveness of risk assessment methods for integration of UAS into the national airspace system or expedite the development of such methods?

The committee may also comment on the effectiveness of risk assessment methods as they pertain to decision making and different modes of UAS operations. However, the committee will not recommend changes to regulations governing UAS operations, nor will the study recommend changes to the organization of the FAA. The scope of this study includes UAS certifications well as operational approval.

Status: Current

PIN: DEPS-ASEB-16-03

Project Duration (months): 15 month(s)

RSO: Day, Dwayne

Topic(s):

Engineering and Technology
Space and Aeronautics


Committee Membership

Committee Post Date: 08/23/2017

Dr. George T. Ligler - (Chair)
GEORGE T. LIGLER (NAE) is the proprietor of GTL Associates, which provides systems integration/engineering and product management services related to telecommunications, computer system and hardware/software engineering, and information management to domestic and foreign customers. He has worked as a subject matter expert to support the Federal Aviation Administration’s implementation of both satellite-based navigation and Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) as components of the Next Generation Air Transportation System. Dr. Ligler is a member of the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) Program Management Committee, the RTCA’s NextGen Advisory Committee Subcommittee, and the plenary leadership group for the Industry-FAA Equip 2020 initiative related to ADS-B out equipage. Dr. Ligler is co-chair of RTCA Special Committee-159 (Navigation Equipment using the Global Navigation Satellite System) and a former founding co-chair of RTCA Special Committee-228 (Minimum Operational Performance Standards for Unmanned Aircraft Systems). He has also been active in RTCA Special Committee-186 (Automatic Dependent Surveillance—Broadcast) since its inception in 1995. Dr. Ligler was awarded the 2006 RTCA Achievement Award, RTCA’s highest award, for his contributions to ADS-B and satellite-based navigation system initiatives. He is also a co-recipient of the 2016 RTCA Achievement Award for his contributions to the development of standards for unmanned aircraft systems. Dr. Ligler holds a Ph.D. in computer science from Oxford University, with his studies supported by a Rhodes scholarship. He is a member of the National Academies’ Standing Committee on Reengineering Census Operations and he has served on four other National Academies’ panels, most recently the Committee on National Statistics’ Panel to Review the 2010 Census.
Dr. Brian Argrow
BRIAN M. ARGROW is chair of Aerospace Engineering Sciences and director of the Integrated Remote and In Situ Sensing Program at the University of Colorado Boulder (CU). He is also director emeritus of the Research and Engineering Center for Unmanned Vehicles at CU. Dr. Argrow has served as associate dean for education and is a CU president’s teaching scholar. His research topics include small unmanned aircraft system design and airspace integration, high-speed aerodynamics, sonic boom, and engineering education, with more than 100 research publications. He is a fellow of the Center for STEM Learning and a recipient of the W.M. Keck Foundation Award for Excellence in Engineering Education. He is a fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and is a past chair of the AIAA Unmanned Systems Program Committee, and he organized/chaired the first major, joint events by the AIAA and the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems: the 2nd and 3rd Workshops on Civilian Applications of Unmanned Aircraft Systems. He served on the NASA Advisory Council’s UAS Subcommittee and several other NASA and NOAA advisory boards and committees. Dr. Argrow currently serves on the ASTM F38 Subcommittee for “Specifications for UAS Operations over People.” Dr. Argrow is an alumnus of the DARPA/IDA Defense Science Study Group, and he received the Air Force Exemplary Civilian Service Award for his service on the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board. He has a Ph.D. in aerospace engineering from the University of Oklahoma. He is a member of the National Academies’ Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and the Aviation Safety Assurance Committee.
Dr. Gregory B. Baecher
GREGORY B. BAECHER (NAE) is the Glenn L Martin Institute Professor of Engineering at the University of Maryland, College Park. He is a civil engineer with 40 years’ experience specializing in risk and reliability of civil infrastructure with emphasis on water resource development, dam and levee safety, hydropower, and coastal protection. He is the author of five books on risk, safety, and the protection of civil infrastructure. He is recipient of the USACE Commander's Award for Public Service for his contributions to the levee system risk analysis of New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina, and of the Panamanian National Award for Science and Technology Innovation for his contributions to enterprise risk management at the Panama Canal. Dr. Baecher earned his Ph.D. in civil engineering from MIT. He has served many National Academies committees and boards, most recently as chair of the Committee on Long-Term Management of the Spirit Lake/Toutle River System in Southwest Washington; as member of the Committee on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Water Resources, Science, Engineering, and Planning; and chair of the Committee on the Updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas.
Dr. Stephen P. Cook
STEPHEN P. COOK is a Northrop Grumman Fellow at the Northrop Gruman Corporation in Northrop Gruman Aerospace Systems. Dr. Cook is responsible for developing and implementing airworthiness policy and strategy across Northrop Grumman’s portfolio of manned and unmanned aircraft programs. Additionally, Dr. Cook is leading the Remotely Piloted Aircraft Airworthiness sub-group at the International Civil Aviation Organization Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) Panel. This group is charged with the development of standards and recommended practices needed for RPAS to integrate into international airspace. Previously, Dr. Cook was principal safety engineer in the Navigation and Unmanned Aircraft Systems Department at The MITRE Corporation. In this role, he supported multiple efforts to integrate civil and military aircraft into the National Airspace System (NAS). He co-led the UAS Sense-and-Avoid Science and Research Panel (SARP), a multi-agency organization charged with identifying key research gaps associated with integrating UAS into the NAS. A key output of the SARP was a risk-based recommended definition for UAS “well clear” to enable UAS to comply with the rules of the air. This UAS “well clear” recommendation informed the work of RTCA Special Committee 228 on Unmanned Aircraft Systems, leading to the publication of Minimum Operational Performance Standards for UAS Detect and Avoid. Before coming to MITRE, Dr. Cook served as the head of the UAS Division of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps Airworthiness Directorate. In this position, he was responsible for airworthiness policy and flight clearance approvals for all Navy and Marine Corps UAS. He also represented the United States in the development of NATO STANAG 4671, the first airworthiness standard developed specifically for fixed wing unmanned aircraft. His research interests include novel risk assessment approaches for UAS and methods to safely bound the flight behavior of UAS containing complex adaptive algorithms. Dr. Cook has completed formal training in the FAA Safety Management System and the U.S. Navy Test Pilot School UAS Flight Test Procedures and Practices Short Course where he logged UAS flight time. He has been appointed as an adjunct visiting professor on the faculty of the North Carolina State University. Dr. Cook is an associate fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Earlier this year he received The Engineers’ Council Distinguished Engineering Project Achievement Award for leading the development of a first-in-the-nation graduate program in airworthiness, in partnership with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. At MITRE he was awarded the Director’s Award for innovative safety risk analyses and simulations in support of the UAS Limited Deployment - Cooperative Airspace Project flight tests. Dr. Cook earned his Ph.D. in aerospace engineering from the University of Maryland. He has not previously served on a National Academies committee.
Dr. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.
LOUIS ANTHONY COX, JR. (NAE) is president of Cox Associates, an applied research company specializing in quantitative health risk assessment, causal modeling, probabilistic and statistical risk analysis, data mining, and operations research. Since 1986, Cox Associates mathematicians and scientists have developed and applied computer simulation and biomathematical models, statistical and epidemiological risk analyses, causal data mining techniques, and operations research and artificial intelligence risk models to improve health, business, and engineering risk analysis and decision making. He is on the faculties of the Center for Computational Mathematics and the Center for Computational Biology at the University of Colorado at Denver and is Clinical Professor of Biostatistics and Informatics at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, where he has focused on uncertainty analysis and causation in epidemiological studies. He was elected to the National Academy of Engineering based on his application of operations research and risk analysis to significant national problems. He earned a Ph.D. in risk analysis from MIT. Dr. Cox has served on many National Academies committees, most recently as a member of the Committee for a Study of Performance-Based Safety Regulation and the Industrial, Manufacturing and Operational Systems Engineering Peer Committee. He is also a former member of the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics.
Dr. Leticia Cuellar-Hengartner
LETICIA CUELLAR-HENGARTNER is a data scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in the Information Systems and Modeling group. Dr. Cuellar has worked in various groups at LANL, including Discrete Simulations Sciences, Information Sciences, Risk Analysis and Decision Support Systems, and Intelligence and System Analysis. She has expertise in statistics, stochastic modeling, machine learning, and model validation. Her work at LANL includes modeling of transportation networks, modeling illegal trafficking of nuclear materials, modeling critical infrastructure, predicting disaster response, modeling telecommunication systems and networks, and methods development enabling soft cosmic ray tomography. These projects used stochastic modeling, agent-based simulations, modeling of human activity and behavior, graph theory and network analysis, and Bayesian networks. Dr. Cuéllar is the principal investigator (PI) for an Ernst & Young founded project that focuses on developing forecasting models for audit quality and analysis of social networks. She is also the co-PI on the Probabilistic Effectiveness Methodology project that performs probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear smuggling. She is the recipient of the 2012 Distinguished Performance Award and the 2011 Los Alamos Award Program from LANL. Dr. Cuellar earned a PhD in applied probability and stochastic processes at UC Berkeley.
Ms. Margaret T. Jenny
MARGARET T. JENNY is the president of RTCA, Inc., a private, not-for-profit corporation dedicated to the forging of wide-ranging consensus-based recommendations in aviation policy, technology, and modernization. Prior to joining RTCA, Ms. Jenny served as chief executive officer of MJF Strategies, LLC, an aviation consulting firm; vice president of corporate business development at ARINC; director of airline business and operations analysis for US Airways; and technical director at The MITRE Corporation. Ms. Jenny has devoted her career to helping diverse and competing stakeholders find common ground to expedite the continual modernization of the national airspace. She has served as the 2016 president of the Aero Cub of Washington. Ms. Jenny earned her M.S. in computer science from American University. She is has been a member of the National Academies’ Committee on the Federal Transportation R&D Strategic Planning Process; the Committee on Review of the National Transportation Science and Technology Strategy; and the Aeronautics Research and Technology Roundtable.
Mr. Andrew Lacher
ANDREW R. LACHER is a UAS research strategist at the MITRE Corporation. He has over 30 years of systems engineering experience mostly in the aviation and transportation systems domain. He currently has a leadership role in defining MITRE’s research strategy in unmanned and autonomous systems. Previously he worked as a product manager for Orbcomm and was a strategic information technology consultant working with small airlines. Mr. Lacher is focused on the safe and secure integration of unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in civil airspace as well as methods to calibrate the trustworthiness of autonomous systems. He helps manage a research portfolio that includes research into a risk-based approach to certification for UAS, UAS safety technologies, human-machine teaming, safety of autonomous systems, and counter-UAS detection and defeat technologies. Much of Mr. Lacher’s research and analysis activities involve improving the safety, security, and efficiency of aviation operations through the application of new information technologies. Mr. Lacher worked on the definition of NextGen as part of the Joint Program and Development Office and was a thought leader in development of future Traffic Flow Management concepts including Collaborative Decision-Making. Mr. Lacher serves on a number of committees, standards working groups, and external research advisory panels. He currently serves on the FAA’s Research, Engineering, and Development Advisory Committee for Aircraft Safety and the FAA’s UAS ID and Tracking Aviation Rule-making Committee. Mr. Lacher earned an M.S. in operations research at The George Washington University. Mr. Lacher was a member of the NRC’s Committee on Autonomy Research for Civil Aviation; the Aeronautics Research and Technology Roundtable; and Panel E: Intelligent and Autonomous Systems, Operations and Decision-Making, Human Integrated Systems, Networking, and Communications for the Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics.


Dr. Karen Marais
KAREN B. MARAIS is an associate professor in the School of Aeronautics and Astronautics in the College of Engineering at Purdue University. Previously, Dr. Marais was on the faculty of Stellenbosch University (South Africa) in the Department of Industrial Engineering. She also held a post-doctoral appointment at MIT working with the FAA’s PARTNER Center of Excellence. Prior to graduate school, she worked as an electronic engineer in the aerospace industry in South Africa. Dr. Marais has worked on developing new ways of assessing safety and risk in complex sociotechnical systems in general, and air transportation systems in particular. Her research interests include modeling and mitigating aviation environmental impacts, improving aviation safety, and developing improved approaches to the engineering of complex systems. Recently, she has investigated ways of improving the success rates of systems engineering projects (through an NSF CAREER grant) and using flight and accident/incident data to improve fixed wing and rotorcraft safety (through the FAA PEGASAS Center of Excellence). She is a recipient of an NSF CAREER Award. Dr. Marais earned her Ph.D. in aerospace engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She served as a member of the National Academies’ Committee on Propulsion and Energy Systems to Reduce Commercial Aviation Carbon Emissions.
Mr. Paul E. McDuffee
PAUL E. MCDUFFEE is the vice president of government relations at Insitu, Inc., where he is responsible for regulation shaping and development supporting Insitu’s future in civilian and commercial use of unmanned aircraft. He serves as principal liaison with FAA in matters relating to regulation of UAS operations and as an advocate for UAS national airspace integration. His involvement in UAS regulatory development is extensive. Prior to joining Insitu in 2006, he transitioned from a 30-year career in academia as a full professor and vice president of aviation training at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University. He joined Insitu as vice president of flight operations and training before moving on to his current role. He currently serves on the AUVSI board of directors and is also AUVSI’s technical representative to the ICAO RPAS Panel. He was a charter member of the FAA’s small Unmanned Aircraft System Aviation Rulemaking Committee and former member of the FAA UAS Aviation Rulemaking Committee. He was the working group chair on ASTM’s F-38 Committee developing industry consensus standards for small UAS and he is currently serving as co-chair of RTCA Special Committee 228 chartered by FAA to establish performance standards for UAS command and control and detect and avoid solutions. He is a recipient of the RTCA 2017 Achievement Award and received three Outstanding Leader Awards from RTCA, a member of the FAA/RTCA Drone Advisory Committee Subcommittee, a member of the FAA Unmanned Aircraft Safety Team Steering Committee, and has recently ended his second term as chair of the Aeronautical Industries Association UAS Committee. He is an active pilot holding airline transport pilot and flight instructor certificates, with jet type ratings, and he has logged more than 9,000 flight hours. He earned an M.S. in aeronautical science from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.


Dr. Amy R. Pritchett
AMY R. PRITCHETT is a professor and head of the Department of Aerospace Engineering at the Pennsylvania State University. Previously, Dr. Pritchett was on the faculty of the Schools of Aerospace Engineering and of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and she served via the Intergovernmental Personnel Act (IPA) as the Director of NASA’s Aviation Safety Program for two years. Her research focuses on the intersection of technology, expert human performance and aerospace operations, with a particular focus on designing to support safety. She is currently editor-in-chief of the Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making. She has received the AIAA Lawrence Sperry Award, the RTCA William Jackson Award and, as a member of the Executive Committee of the Commercial Aviation Safety Team, the 2008 Collier Trophy. She earned her Sc.D., S.M. and S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She has served on many National Academies committees, most recently as a member of the Committee of the Federal Aviation Administration Research Plan on Certification of New Technologies into the National Airspace System; chair of the Committee for a Study of FAA Air Traffic Controller Staffing; and member of the Committee on Human Spaceflight Crew Operations.
Dr. Agam N. Sinha
AGAM N. SINHA is the president of ANS Aviation International, LLC. Dr. Sinha retired from The MITRE Corporation in 2014 where he was a senior vice president of The MITRE Corporation and general manager of the Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD). He also directed the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). CAASD supports the FAA, the Transportation Security Administration, and international civil aviation authorities in addressing operational and technical challenges to meet aviation’s capacity, efficiency, safety and security needs. Dr. Sinha has over 40 years of experience in aviation and weather systems. He serves on the board of trustees of Vaughn College of Aeronautics in New York and is on the advisory board of Ph.D. in Aviation at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University. He also served as a member of the FAA’s NextGen Advisory Committee, and of the FAA Research, Engineering, and Development Advisory Committee. He was elected to serve as the chairman of RTCA Board of Directors and the RTCA Policy Board. He was an elected member of the RTCA Policy Board, Air Traffic Management Advisory Committee, and the Air Traffic Management Steering Group. In the past, he has also served on the advisory committee of Lincoln Lab at MIT and of National Center of Atmospheric Research (Research Applications Programs). He is an associate fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). He has over 80 publications and has been an invited presenter to a wide range of organizations nationally and internationally. Dr. Sinha is the recipient of several awards and citations from the FAA and industry. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota. Dr. Sinha is a member of the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, he is a former member of the Committee of the Federal Aviation Administration Research Plan on Certification of New Technologies into the National Airspace System, and he is a former chair of the Aviation Group of the Transportation Research Board.
Dr. Karen Willcox
KAREN E. WILLCOX is a professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). She is also co-director of the Center for Computational Engineering at the MIT. Dr. Willcox leads a research program that is developing the mathematical foundations and computational methods to enable design of the next generation of aerospace vehicles. Before joining the faculty at MIT, she worked at Boeing Phantom Works with the Blended-Wing-Body aircraft design group. She has also held a visiting scientist position at Sandia National Laboratories. Her current research specifically targets the design challenges and opportunities offered by new sensing technologies, increased onboard computation power, and increasing levels of autonomy. Modeling the data-to-decisions flow is key to enabling new approaches for vehicle design and operation. Dr. Willcox's data-to-decisions modeling methods have two key underpinnings: (1) exploiting the synergies between physics-based models and data, and (2) explicit modeling and treatment of uncertainty. She earned her Ph.D. in aerospace engineering from MIT. She is a member of the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics; she was a member of the Committee to Conduct an Independent Assessment of the Nation's Wake Turbulence Research and Development Program; and she was a member of the Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics, Aerodynamics and Acoustics Panel.
Dr. Craig A. Woolsey
CRAIG A. WOOLSEY is a professor in the Crofton Department of Aerospace and Ocean Engineering at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech). Woolsey directs the Virginia Tech site within the Center for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS), an National Science Foundation Industry/University Cooperative Research Center (I/UCRC). Dr. Woolsey’s research and teaching interests include nonlinear control theory for mechanical systems, particularly energy-based control methods, and applications to ocean and atmospheric vehicles. His primary research focus is the development and validation of control methods that improve the performance and robustness of autonomous vehicles. Soon after joining Virginia Tech, Dr. Woolsey received the NSF CAREER Award and the ONR Young Investigator Program Award. He earned his Ph.D. in mechanical and aerospace engineering from Princeton University.

Events



Location:

Teleconference Only
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Dionna Wise
Contact Email:  dwise@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  202-334-2447

Agenda
This is a teleconference with the Committee only.
The meeting is closed in its entirety.
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes



Location:

Keck Center
500 5th St NW, Washington, DC 20001
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Dionna Wise
Contact Email:  dwise@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  202-334-2447

Agenda
Committee on Assessing the Risks of
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration

Draft Agenda
Meeting #3: January 31- February 2, 2018

Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Keck Center Room 201
500 5th St., NW Washington, D.C. 20001
OPEN SESSION

7:30 a.m. Room Opens (Working breakfast available in the meeting room)

8:29 a.m. Meeting Convenes

8:30 a.m. Update from the FAA Sabrina Saunders-Hodge
FAA

9:00 a.m. UAS EXCOM Science and Research Rodney Cole/Ted Lester/Dallas Brooks
Panel (SARP) Approaches to UAS Risk UAS Executive Committee

9:45 a.m. Testing at a UAS Test Site Mark Blanks
MAAP/VaTech UAS Test Site

11:00 a.m. Break

NOTE: COMMITTEE WILL GO INTO EXECUTIVE SESSION AFTER THE SPEAKERS

11:15a.m. Committee Discussion Committee

12:00 p.m. Discussion will continue over a working lunch in the meeting room

1:00 p.m. Committee Discussion Committee

2:00 p.m. Committee Discussion Committee

3:15 p.m. Break

3:30 p.m. Committee Discussion Committee

OPEN SESSION

4:00 p.m. Northrop Grumman Perspectives on UAS (Via phone) Doug Davis
Northrop Grumman



5:00 p.m. Meeting moves to alternate location for working dinner at 6:00 pm

6:00 p.m. Working dinner at Zaytinya Restaurant 701 9th Street, NW
Washington, DC
8:30 p.m. Adjourn for the Day

Thursday, February 1, 2018

EXECUTIVE SESSION

7:30 a.m. Room Opens (Working breakfast available in the meeting room)

8:30 a.m. Meeting Convenes

9:00 a.m. Committee Discussion Committee

10:00 a.m. Committee Discussion Committee

10:30 a.m. Break

10:45 a.m. Committee Discussion Committee

12:00 p.m. Discussion will continue over a working lunch in the meeting room

1:00 p.m. Committee Discussion Committee

3:15 p.m. Break

3:30 p.m. Committee Discussion Committee

5:30 p.m. Adjourn for the Day

Friday, February 2, 2018

EXECUTIVE SESSION

7:30 a.m. Room Opens (Working breakfast available in the meeting room)

8:30 a.m. Committee Discussion Committee

10:30 a.m. Break

10:45 a.m. Committee Discussion Committee

12:00 p.m. Discussion will continue over a working lunch in the cafeteria

1:00 p.m. Meeting Adjourns

Statement of Task
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will appoint an ad hoc committee with representation from industry, academia and government to undertake a study to evaluate the potential of probabilistic assessments of risks and other risk assessment methods for streamlining the process of integrating unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the national airspace system (NAS) and identify supporting research and development opportunities in this field. The committee will execute the following tasks:
• Consider recent, current, and planned FAA efforts to evaluate the risks associated with the integration of UAS into the national airspace system and risk assessment methods.
• Consider mechanisms for assessing severity and likelihood metrics required for probabilistic and other appropriate risk assessment methods based on UAS design characteristics (e.g., weight, speed, materials, and technologies) and operational characteristics (e.g., airspace characteristics, population density, and whether they are piloted remotely or autonomously).
• Determine how the scope and detail required of risk assessment methods may vary for different sizes and operations of UAS (e.g., Part 107 vs. Part 91 operations) and whether certain classes of UAS (micro, etc.) could be operated with the assumption they are inherently low risk.
• Evaluate other methods that could reasonably be used to evaluate the risks of UAS integration in the NAS. What are the benefits and limitations of these alternate methods? How do these alternate methods compare to probabilistic risk assessment methods as well as severity and likelihood metrics traditionally used by the FAA for manned aircraft?
• What state of the art assessment methods are currently in use by industry, academia, other agencies of the U.S. government, or other international civil aviation authorities that could benefit the FAA?
• What are the key advancements or goals for performance-based expanded UAS operations in the NAS that can reasonably be achieved through the application of the recommended risk assessment methods in the short-term (1-5 years), mid-term (5-10 years) and the longer-term (10-20 years).
• What are the key challenges or barriers that must be overcome to implement the recommended risk assessment methods in order to attain these key goals?
• In light of ongoing research and likely advances in risk assessment methods by other organizations, what research and development projects related to risk assessment methods should be the highest priority for the FAA?
• Are there other related recommendations to streamline FAA processes (not governed by regulation) that would either improve the effectiveness of risk assessment methods for integration of UAS into the national airspace system or expedite the development of such methods?
The committee may also comment on the effectiveness of risk assessment methods as they pertain to decision making and different modes of UAS operations. However, the committee will not recommend changes to regulations governing UAS operations, nor will the study recommend changes to the organization of the FAA. The scope of this study includes UAS certifications well as operational approval.



The following information is provided for any members of the general public who may be in attendance:

This meeting is being held to gather information to help the committee conduct its study. This committee will examine the information and material obtained during this, and other public meetings, in an effort to inform its work. Although opinions may be stated and lively discussion may ensue, no conclusions are being drawn at this time and no recommendations will be made. In fact, the committee will deliberate thoroughly before writing its draft report. Moreover, once the draft report is written, it must go through a rigorous review by experts who are anonymous to the committee, and the committee then must respond to this review with appropriate revisions that adequately satisfy the Academy’s Report Review committee and the chair of the NRC before it is considered an NRC report. Therefore, observers who draw conclusions about the committee’s work based on today’s discussions will be doing so prematurely.

Furthermore, individual committee members often engage in discussion and questioning for the specific purpose of probing an issue and sharpening an argument. The comments of any given committee member may not necessarily reflect the position he or she may actually hold on the subject under discussion, to say nothing of that person’s future position as it may evolve in the course of the project. Any inference about an individual’s position regarding findings or recommendations in the final report are therefore also premature.

GENERAL NOTES

Keck Center: Is located at 500 Fifth St. NW, in Washington’s Penn Quarter district, adjacent to Judiciary Square and the Verizon Center. The closest Metro stations are Gallery Place/Chinatown (Red, Green and Yellow lines; take “7th and F St.” exit and turn left) and Judiciary Square (Red line; take National Building Museum exit and turn left). Directions available at the following website: http://www.nationalacademies.org/about/contact/nax.html.

Keck Security/ID required: Meeting attendees entering the building will need to show a photo ID to the Security Guard, who checks the ID against the attendee list.

Keck Parking: There is plenty of free parking in the Keck Center’s underground lot. Access to the lot is off of Sixth Street (between E and F Streets).

Wi-Fi Connection: To connect to the Wi-Fi choose “Visitor Network” then open up a browser and click “Accept terms and conditions.” You will then be connected to the internet.

Meals: Breakfast and lunch will be available at the meeting. In order to remain in compliance with government guidelines that preclude civil servants from accepting meals, we have provided a break-down for civil servants needing to reimburse those costs. The reimbursement cost of breakfast is $16 and is $17 for lunch. Checks, payable to the National Academy of Sciences, are preferred. There is also a refectory available for purchasing your meals in the building on the 3rd floor.

Hotel: Blocks of rooms for the use of committee members and guests has been reserved at the Embassy Suites Hotel; 900 10th Street, Washington, D.C. 20001. The telephone number is 202-739-2001. Additional information can be found at: http://embassysuites3.hilton.com/en/hotels/district-of-columbia/embassy-suites-by-hilton-washington-dc-convention-center-WASCCES/index.html . The hotel is 0.7 miles from the Keck Center.


REMOTE CONNECTION DETAILS
Topic: Risks of Unmanned Aircraft Systems M3
Time: Jan 31, 2018 8:30 AM Eastern Time (US and Canada)
Join online: https://nasem.zoom.us/j/144341613
Join via telephone: 1 877 853 5257 (Toll Free)
Meeting ID: 144 341 613

Topic: Risks of Unmanned Aircraft Systems M3 Open PM
Time: Jan 31, 2018 4:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)
Join online: https://nasem.zoom.us/j/353202604
Join via telephone: 1 877 853 5257 (Toll Free)
Meeting ID: 353 202 604

Last updated: January 29, 3:30 PM.
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

George T. Ligler (Chair)
Brian M. Argrow
Gregory Baecher
Stephen P. Cook
Leticia Cuellar-Hengartner
Margaret T. Jenny
Andrew R. Lacher
Karen B. Marais
Paul McDuffee
via Zoom
Amy R. Pritchett
via Zoom/In-person
Agam N. Sinha
Karen E. Willcox
Craig A. Woolsey

The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

*The committee discussed 1/31 presentations.
*The committee revisited and discussed the statement of task.
*The committee discussed their findings and recommendations.
*Homework writing assignments.

The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:

No outside materials were distributed to the committee.

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
January 31, 2018


Location:

Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center
100 Academy Way, Irvine, CA 92617
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Dwayne Day
Contact Email:  dday@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  202-334-3011

Agenda
Draft Agenda
Meeting #2: December 13-15, 2017
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Beckman Center Board Room
100 Academy Way Irvine, CA 92617
OPEN SESSION

7:15 a.m. Meet in the hotel lobby at 7:15 am to carpool over to Beckman
7:30 a.m. Room Opens (Working Breakfast Available in the Dining Room)

8:30 a.m. Meeting Convenes

9:00 a.m. A New Approach to Risk Analysis Joerg Dittrich(via Webex)
DLR

10:00 a.m. Let’s Take Risk Seriously Walter Stockwell
dji

11:00 a.m. Break

11:15 a.m. Safely Enabling UAS Operations in Low Parimal Kopardekar (via Webex)
Altitude Airspace NASA Ames

12:15 p.m. Working Lunch Available in the Dining Room; Discussion Continues

1:00 p.m. Google Views on UAS James Burgess
Google Wing

2:00 p.m. Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Insurance Andrew D. Spiegel
and Risk Management United States Aircraft Insurance Group

3:00 p.m. Break

3:15 p.m. Predictive Risk Analytics for Integration of UAS into the NAS James Luxhoj
Rutgers

4:15 p.m. Airbus Views Peter Sachs. Airbus

5:30 p.m. Meeting Adjourns to an Alternate Location



6:30 p.m. Working Dinner at Andrei’s Conscious Cuisine
2607 Main Street, Irvine, CA 92614
Phone: 949-387-8887
8:30 p.m. Adjourn for the Day

Thursday, December 14, 2017
Hotel Irvine (Venue Change) Pelican Hill Conference Room
EXECUTIVE SESSION

(Breakfast is included in your stay. Visit the Eats Restaurant on the main floor of the Hotel Irvine. Order from the Chef’s Everyday Breakfast, available from 6:30a to 9:30a.)

8:00 a.m. Room Opens

8:30 a.m. Meeting Convenes

9:00 a.m. Discussion Continues Committee

10:00 a.m. Discussion Continues Committee

11:00 a.m. Break

11:15 a.m. Discussion Continues Committee

OPEN SESSION

12:15 p.m. Working Lunch Available in the Shady Canyon Conference Room; Discussion Continues

1:15 p.m. RTCA SC-228 Working Group 1 Activities Brandon Suarez
General Atomics

EXECUTIVE SESSION

3:15 p.m. Break

3:30 p.m. Discussion Continues Committee

5:30 p.m. Adjourn for the Day

Friday, December 15, 2017
Beckman Center (Venue Change) Board Room
100 Academy Way Irvine, CA 92617
EXECUTIVE SESSION

7:15 a.m. Meet in the hotel lobby at 7:15 am to carpool over to Beckman
7:30 a.m. Room Opens (Working Breakfast Available in the Dining Room)

8:30 a.m. Discussion Continues Committee

10:30 a.m. Break

10:45 a.m. Discussion Continues Committee

12:00 p.m. Working Lunch available in the Dining Room; Discussion Continues

1:00 p.m. Meeting Adjourns


The following information is provided for any members of the general public who may be in attendance:

This meeting is being held to gather information to help the committee conduct its study. This committee will examine the information and material obtained during this, and other public meetings, in an effort to inform its work. Although opinions may be stated and lively discussion may ensue, no conclusions are being drawn at this time and no recommendations will be made. In fact, the committee will deliberate thoroughly before writing its draft report. Moreover, once the draft report is written, it must go through a rigorous review by experts who are anonymous to the committee, and the committee then must respond to this review with appropriate revisions that adequately satisfy the Academy’s Report Review committee and the chair of the NRC before it is considered an NRC report. Therefore, observers who draw conclusions about the committee’s work based on today’s discussions will be doing so prematurely.

Furthermore, individual committee members often engage in discussion and questioning for the specific purpose of probing an issue and sharpening an argument. The comments of any given committee member may not necessarily reflect the position he or she may actually hold on the subject under discussion, to say nothing of that person’s future position as it may evolve in the course of the project. Any inference about an individual’s position regarding findings or recommendations in the final report are therefore also premature.


Goal for this meeting: Let’s do some writing and recommending!


REMOTE CONNECTION DETAILS

1. Click on the url (below) for the session that you want.
2. Enter your name and email address (you will not be spammed) and click “Join Meeting”
3. Let WebEx load (may take a minute); once loaded, WebEx will immediately and automatically provide you a pop-up window to enter the phone number you would like to be called at (i.e. home, office, mobile) to join the telecon. Enter your phone number and click “Call me” and follow the prompts.
4. Enter the Meeting Password (below)
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Wednesday, December 13 - Open Session
Meeting Name: UAS Integration, Dy 1 Open
Meeting Password: 12132017
Conference Code: 485 964 4307
Url: https://nationalacademies.webex.com/nationalacademies/j.php?MTID=mffcb7fd08317b31e4146ded0a579cdc4

If you require a toll free number to call in from outside the United States, please contact Dionna Wise (DWise@nas.edu).
NOTES
Beckman Center: Is located at 100 Academy Way, Irvine, CA 92617. Directions are available at the following website: http://www.thebeckmancenter.org/about/mapanddirections/index.htm.

Parking: Parking is free and space is usually plentiful. Participants are requested to park in the designated areas only and not on the lawn, driveways or in delivery entrances. Please observe all ONE WAY and NO PARKING signs.

Wi-Fi Connection: To connect to the Wi-Fi chose “Visitor” then open up a browser and click “Accept terms and conditions.” You will then be connected to the internet.

Hotel: A block of rooms has been reserved for the committee’s use at the Hotel Irvine, 17900 Jamboree Road, Irvine, CA 92614; Phone: 866-396-4201. Additional information, including directions can be found at the hotel’s website: http://www.hotelirvine.com/.

Meals: Breakfast and lunch are available free of charge to all committee members and guests in the refectory at the Beckman Center. Those meeting participants who are ethically bound to pay for these meals can do so if they wish: Breakfast $15.00 and Lunch $16.00. Checks payable to the National Academy of Sciences preferred.

Working Dinner: The committee will hold a working dinner at Andrei’s Conscious Cuisine; 2607 Main Street, Irvine, CA 92614. Phone: 949-387-8887. All meeting participants can attend. The Academies can pay for members of the committee and guest speakers. Unfortunately, the Academies cannot pay for federal employees. Cost of the dinner is $50.00. Checks payable to the National Academy of Sciences preferred.

Last updated: December 8, 2017 – 3:45 PM
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

George T. Ligler (Chair)
Brian M. Argrow
Gregory Baecher
Stephen P. Cook
Leticia Cuellar-Hengartner
Margaret T. Jenny
Andrew R. Lacher
Karen B. Marais
Paul McDuffee
Amy R. Pritchett
Agam N. Sinha
Karen E. Willcox
Craig A. Woolsey


The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

*Committee discussed their presentations.
*Committee discussed possible findings and recommendations for the report.
*Committee discussed plans for the next meeting.
*Committee homework assignments.

The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:

No outside materials were distributed to the committee.

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
December 15, 2017


Location:

National Academy of Sciences Building
2101 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20418
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Dionna Wise
Contact Email:  dwise@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  (202) 334-3477

Agenda
Committee on Assessing the Risks of
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration

Draft Agenda
Meeting #1: September 26-28, 2017

Tuesday, September 26, 2017
NAS Building Room 280
2101 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20418

CLOSED SESSION

7:30 a.m. Room Opens

8:30 a.m. Meeting Convenes

OPEN SESSION

10:00 a.m. The UAS Integration Office Bill Crozier
FAA

11:00 a.m. Office of Accident Investigation and Prevention Mike O’Donnell
FAA

12:00 p.m. Lunch available in the meeting room

1:00 p.m. Navigation & Unmanned Aircraft Systems Jeff Breunig
MITRE

2:00 p.m. Industry views Ally Ferguson
PrecisionHawk

3:00 p.m. Break

3:15 p.m. Safety Analysis Paradigm for UAS Jonathan Hammer
Noblis

4:15 p.m. TBD TBD

CLOSED SESSION

5:30 p.m. Meeting adjourns to an alternate location

OPEN SESSION
6:30 p.m. Working dinner at TBD TBD

8:30 p.m. Adjourn for the Day

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

OPEN SESSION

7:30 a.m. Room Opens (working breakfast available in the meeting room)

8:30 a.m. Meeting Convenes

9:00 a.m. ASSURE Research Modeling for UAS Collision Risks David Arterburn
University of Alabama, Huntsville

10:00 a.m. Unmanned Systems Certification Wes Ryan
FAA

11:00 a.m. Break

11:15 a.m. Key Technology Enablers for Improving UAS Safety in the NAS Glenn Rossi
Boeing

12:15 p.m. Lunch available in the meeting room

1:15 p.m. ATO Views on UAS Integration Gerry Pilj and Firdu Bati
FAA

NOTE: COMMITTEE WILL GO INTO CLOSED SESSION AFTER THE SPEAKERS

3:15 p.m. Break

5:30 p.m. Adjourn for the Day

Thursday, September 28, 2017

CLOSED SESSION

7:30 a.m. Room Opens

8:30 a.m. TBD TBD

10:30 a.m. Break

10:45 a.m. TBD TBD

12:00 p.m. Lunch available in the meeting room

1:00 p.m. Meeting Adjourns

Statement of Task
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will appoint an ad hoc committee with representation from industry, academia and government to undertake a study to evaluate the potential of probabilistic assessments of risks and other risk assessment methods for streamlining the process of integrating unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the national airspace system (NAS) and identify supporting research and development opportunities in this field. The committee will execute the following tasks:
• Consider recent, current, and planned FAA efforts to evaluate the risks associated with the integration of UAS into the national airspace system and risk assessment methods.
• Consider mechanisms for assessing severity and likelihood metrics required for probabilistic and other appropriate risk assessment methods based on UAS design characteristics (e.g., weight, speed, materials, and technologies) and operational characteristics (e.g., airspace characteristics, population density, and whether they are piloted remotely or autonomously).
• Determine how the scope and detail required of risk assessment methods may vary for different sizes and operations of UAS (e.g., Part 107 vs. Part 91 operations) and whether certain classes of UAS (micro, etc.) could be operated with the assumption they are inherently low risk.
• Evaluate other methods that could reasonably be used to evaluate the risks of UAS integration in the NAS. What are the benefits and limitations of these alternate methods? How do these alternate methods compare to probabilistic risk assessment methods as well as severity and likelihood metrics traditionally used by the FAA for manned aircraft?
• What state of the art assessment methods are currently in use by industry, academia, other agencies of the U.S. government, or other international civil aviation authorities that could benefit the FAA?
• What are the key advancements or goals for performance-based expanded UAS operations in the NAS that can reasonably be achieved through the application of the recommended risk assessment methods in the short-term (1-5 years), mid-term (5-10 years) and the longer-term (10-20 years).
• What are the key challenges or barriers that must be overcome to implement the recommended risk assessment methods in order to attain these key goals?
• In light of ongoing research and likely advances in risk assessment methods by other organizations, what research and development projects related to risk assessment methods should be the highest priority for the FAA?
• Are there other related recommendations to streamline FAA processes (not governed by regulation) that would either improve the effectiveness of risk assessment methods for integration of UAS into the national airspace system or expedite the development of such methods?
The committee may also comment on the effectiveness of risk assessment methods as they pertain to decision making and different modes of UAS operations. However, the committee will not recommend changes to regulations governing UAS operations, nor will the study recommend changes to the organization of the FAA. The scope of this study includes UAS certifications well as operational approval.


The following information is provided for any members of the general public who may be in attendance:

This meeting is being held to gather information to help the committee conduct its study. This committee will examine the information and material obtained during this, and other public meetings, in an effort to inform its work. Although opinions may be stated and lively discussion may ensue, no conclusions are being drawn at this time and no recommendations will be made. In fact, the committee will deliberate thoroughly before writing its draft report. Moreover, once the draft report is written, it must go through a rigorous review by experts who are anonymous to the committee, and the committee then must respond to this review with appropriate revisions that adequately satisfy the Academy’s Report Review committee and the chair of the NRC before it is considered an NRC report. Therefore, observers who draw conclusions about the committee’s work based on today’s discussions will be doing so prematurely.

Furthermore, individual committee members often engage in discussion and questioning for the specific purpose of probing an issue and sharpening an argument. The comments of any given committee member may not necessarily reflect the position he or she may actually hold on the subject under discussion, to say nothing of that person’s future position as it may evolve in the course of the project. Any inference about an individual’s position regarding findings or recommendations in the final report are therefore also premature.


REMOTE CONNECTION DETAILS

1. Click on the url (below) for the session that you want.
2. Enter your name and email address (you will not be spammed) and click “Join Meeting”
3. Let WebEx load (may take a minute); once loaded, WebEx will immediately and automatically provide you a pop-up window to enter the phone number you would like to be called at (i.e. home, office, mobile) to join the telecon. Enter your phone number and click “Call me” and follow the prompts.
4. Enter the Meeting Password (below)
5. Teleconference only: Connection quality is much better via WebEx’s “Call me” feature, so we strongly recommend that you connect this way. If you are not able to do so, you can dial 1-866-668-0721 and enter the conference code (below).

Tuesday, September 26 - Open Session TBD
Meeting Name: TBD Open
Meeting Password: TBD
Conference Code: TBD
Url: TBD
Wednesday, September 27 - Open Session TBD
Meeting Name: TBD Open
Meeting Password: TBD
Conference Code: TBD
Url: TBD

If you require a toll free number to call in from outside the United States, please contact Dionna Wise (DWise@nas.edu).

Last updated: September 5, 2017 – 4 PM
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

Dr. George T. Ligler
Chair
Dr. Brian M. Argrow
Dr. Gregory Baecher
Dr. Stephen P. Cook
Dr. Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Dr. Leticia Cuellar-Hengartner
Ms. Margaret T. Jenny
Mr. Andrew R. Lacher
Dr. Karen B. Marais
Mr. Paul McDuffee
Dr. Amy R. Pritchett (via WebEx)
Dr. Agam N. Sinha
Dr. Karen E. Willcox
Dr. Craig A. Woolsey



The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

*Bias and Conflict Discussion
*Topics for the next meeting.
*Speakers to address the topics.
*The report outline.
*Committee homework assignments.

The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:

No outside materials were distributed to the committee.

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
September 27, 2017

Publications

  • Publications having no URL can be seen at the Public Access Records Office
Publications

No data present.