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Project Information

Project Information


A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling


Project Scope:

Climate models are the foundation for understanding and projecting climate and climate-related changes and are thus critical tools for supporting climate-related decision making.  This study will develop a strategy for improving the nation’s capability to accurately simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial timescales.  The committee’s report is envisioned as a high level analysis, providing a strategic framework to guide progress in the nation’s climate modeling enterprise over the next 10-20 years.  Specifically, the committee will:


1. Engage key stakeholders in a discussion of the status and future of climate modeling in the United States over the next decade and beyond, with an emphasis on decade to century timescales and local to global resolution.  This discussion should include both the modeling and user communities, broadly defined, and should focus on the strengths and challenges of current modeling approaches, including their usefulness to decision making, the observations and research activities needed to support model development and validation, and potential new directions in all of these spheres.


2. Describe the existing landscape of domestic and international climate modeling efforts, including approaches being used in research and operational settings, new approaches being planned or discussed, and the relative strengths and challenges of the various approaches, with an emphasis on models with decade to century timescales and local to global resolution.


3. Discuss, in broad terms, the observational, basic and applied research, infrastructure, and other requirements of current and possible future climate modeling efforts, and develop a strategic approach for identifying the priority observations, research, and decision support activities that would lead to the greatest improvements in our understanding and ability to monitor, model, and respond to climate change on local to global space scales and decade to century timescales.


4. Provide recommendations for developing a comprehensive and integrated national strategy for climate modeling over the next decade (i.e., 2011-2020) and beyond.  This advice should include discussion of different modeling approaches (including the relationship between decadal-to-centennial scale modeling with modeling activities at other timescales); priority observations, research activities, and infrastructure for supporting model development; and how all of these efforts can be made most useful for decision making in this decade and beyond.

 

Examples of the types of strategic questions to be addressed include:  What is the appropriate balance between improving resolution and adding complexity as computing power improves?  What are the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches to projecting regional climate change (e.g., embedded regional models, statistical downscaling, etc.)?  What are the benefits and tradeoffs associated with multi-model versus unified modeling frameworks?  What opportunities might exist to develop better interfaces and integration between Earth system models and models of human systems?  What observations and process studies are needed to initialize climate predictions on both regional and global scales, advance our understanding of relevant physical processes and mechanisms, and validate model results?  What critical infrastructure constraints, including high performance computing and personnel issues, currently limit model development and use?  What steps can be taken to improve the communication of climate model results (e.g., presentation of uncertainties) and ensure that the climate modeling enterprise remains relevant to decision making?  What modeling approaches and activities are likely to provide the most value for the investments required?

Status: Completed

PIN: DELS-BASC-09-04

Project Duration (months): 24 month(s)

RSO: Dunlea, Edward

Board(s)/Committee(s):

Topic(s):

Computers and Information Technology
Earth Sciences
Policy for Science and Technology



Geographic Focus:

Committee Membership

Committee Post Date: 06/09/2011

Chris Bretherton - (Chair)
University of Washington

Chris Bretherton is currently a Professor in the University of Washington Departments of Atmospheric Science and Applied Mathematics, where he teaches classes on weather, atmospheric turbulence and cumulus convection, tropical meteorology, geophysical fluid dynamics, numerical methods, and classical analysis of ODEs and PDEs. He directs the University of Washington Program on Climate Change, which organizes graduate courses, seminars, a summer institute, and research on climate science and its relevance to our society and future. His group developed the parameterizations of shallow cumulus convection used in the cutting-edge versions of two leading US climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model, version 3 (AM3). They also developed the turbulence parameterization used in CAM5, and have versions of both schemes for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional modeling system.
Venkatramani Balaji
Princeton University

V. Balaji heads the Modeling Systems Group serving developers of Earth System models at GFDL and Princeton University. With a background in physics and climate science, he has become an expert in the area of parallel computing and scientific infrastructure, providing high-level programming interfaces for expressing parallelism in scientific algorithms. He has pioneered the use of frameworks (such as the Flexible Modeling System: FMS, as well as community standards such as ESMF and PRISM) allowing the construction of climate models out of independently developed components sharing a technical architecture; and of curators (FMS Runtime Environment FRE) for the execution of complex workflows to manage the complete climate modeling process. The Earth System Curator (US) and Metafor (EU) projects, in which he plays a key role, have developed the use of a common information model which allows the execution of complex scientific queries on model data archives.
V. Balaji plays advisory roles on NSF, NOAA and DOE review panels, including the recent series of exascale workshops. He is a sought-after speaker and lecturer and is committed to provide training in the use of climate models in developing nations, leading workshops to advanced students and researchers in South Africa and India.

Thomas L. Delworth
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Thomas L. Delworth is a Research Scientist and group leader in the Climate Change, Variability and Prediction Group at NOAA’s GFDL. His research is largely focused around decadal to centennial climate variability and change through the synthesis of climate models and observational data. On these time scales the behavior of the climate system is a mixture of natural variability combined with the response of the climate system to changing radiative forcing induced by changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. Understanding the natural variability of the climate system on decadal scales is critical to their ability to detect climate change, and to understand the processes responsible for observed change from the global to the regional scale.
Robert E. Dickinson
The University of Texas at Austin

Robert E. Dickinson joined the Department of Geological Sciences in August of 2008. For the previous 9 years, he was Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and held the Georgia Power/ Georgia Research Alliance Chair at the Georgia Institute of Technology, the 9 years before that he was Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and Regents Professor at the University of Arizona, and for the previous 22 years a Senior Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He was elected to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 1988, to the U.S. National Academy of Engineering in 2002, and a foreign member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2006. His research interests are in climate modeling, climate variability and change, aerosols, the hydrological cycle and droughts, land surface processes, the terrestrial carbon cycle, and the application of remote sensing data to modeling of land surface processes.
James A. Edmonds
Joint Global Change Research Institute

Jae Edmonds is a Chief Scientist and Laboratory Fellow at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute, a collaboration with the University of Maryland at College Park. His research in the areas of long-term, global, energy, technology, economy, and climate change spans three decades, producing several books, numerous scientific papers and countless presentations. He is one of the pioneers in the field of integrated assessment modeling of climate change. His principal research focus is the role of energy technology in addressing climate change. He is the Chief Scientist for the Integrated Assessment Research Program in the Office of Science at the U.S. Department of Energy. He has been an active participant in all of the major assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
James S. Famiglietti
University of California, Irvine

James S. Famiglietti holds a joint faculty appointment in Earth System Science and in Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of California, Irvine, where he is the Founding Director of the system-wide UC Center for Hydrologic Modeling. He holds a B.S. in Geology from Tufts University, an M.S. in Hydrology from the University of Arizona, and an M.A. and a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering and Operations Research from Princeton University. He completed his postdoctoral studies in hydrology and climate system modeling at Princeton and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Before joining the faculty at UCI in 2001, Dr. Famiglietti was an Assistant and Associate Professor in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Texas at Austin, and was the Associate Director of the UT Environmental Science Institute. He is the past Chair of the Board of the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI), and past Editor-in-Chief of Geophysical Research Letters. His research concerns the role of hydrology in the coupled Earth system. Areas of activity include the continued development of the hydrologic components of climate models; climate system modeling for studies of land-ocean-atmosphere-human interaction; and remote sensing of the terrestrial and global water cycles, including groundwater depletion and freshwater availability. Famiglietti is currently leading the Community Hydrologic Modeling Platform (CHyMP) effort to accelerate the development of hydrological models for use in addressing national and international priorities related to water, food, economic, climate, and national security.
Inez Y. Fung
University of California, Berkeley

Inez Fung is a Professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science and the Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management. Since 2005, she has also been a Founding Co-Director of the Berkeley Institute of the Environment. Inez Fung has been studying climate change for the last 20 years. She is a principal architect of large-scale mathematical modeling approaches and numerical models to represent the geographic and temporal variations of sources and sinks of CO2, dust and other trace substances around the globe. Dr. Fung’s recent work in climate modeling predicts the co-evolution of CO2 and climate and concludes that the diminishing capacities of the land and oceans to store carbon act to accelerate global warming. Inez Fung received her S.B. in Applied Mathematics and her Sc.D. in Meteorology from MIT. She joined the Berkeley faculty in 1998 as the first Richard and Rhoda Goldman Distinguished Professor in the Physical Sciences and the founding Director of the Berkeley Atmospheric Sciences Center.
James J. Hack
Oak Ridge National Laboratory

James J. Hack directs the National Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS), a leadership computing facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory supporting transformational science. He identifies major high performance computing needs from scientific and hardware perspectives and puts forth strategies to meet those needs as machines evolve to the petascale, able to carry out a quadrillion calculations per second. An atmospheric scientist, Hack also leads ORNL’s Climate Change Initiative. Dr. Hack became a research staff member at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, where he worked on the design and evaluation of high-performance computing architectures. In 1984 he moved to the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a National Science Foundation-sponsored center, where his roles included Senior Scientist, head of the Climate Modeling Section, and Deputy Director of the Climate and Global Dynamics Division. He was one of the principal developers of the climate model that ran on NCCS supercomputers to provide more than one-third of the simulation data jointly contributed by the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation to the most recent assessment report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the group that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore.
James W. Hurrell
National Center for Atmospheric Research

James (Jim) W. Hurrell is Senior Scientist in the Climate and Global Dynamics Division of the Earth System Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). NCAR is a federally funded research and development center that works with partners at universities and researchers to explore and understand the atmosphere and its interactions with the sun, the oceans, the biosphere, and human society. Jim joined NCAR after earning his doctorate in atmospheric science from Purdue University. Jim’s research has centered on empirical and modeling studies and diagnostic analyses to better understand climate, climate variability and climate change. Jim has been involved in assessment activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Jim has been extensively involved in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), including roles as co-chair of the Scientific Steering Group (SSG) of both U.S. and International CLIVAR and membership on several other CLIVAR panels. His current position at NCAR is Chief Scientist of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Jim has given testimony on climate change issues for congressional subcommittees and has received numerous prestigious honors and awards in his field of atmospheric science.
Daniel J. Jacob
Harvard University

Daniel J. Jacob is a Professor of atmospheric chemistry and environmental engineering at Harvard University. The goal of his research is to understand the chemical composition of the atmosphere, its perturbation by human activity, and the implications for climate change and life on Earth. His approaches include global modeling of atmospheric chemistry and climate, aircraft measurement campaigns, satellite data retrievals, and analyses of atmospheric observations.
James L. Kinter, III
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmospher Studies

James L. Kinter is Director of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) where he manages all aspects of basic and applied climate research conducted by the Center. Dr. Kinter's research includes studies of climate predictability on seasonal and longer time scales. Of particular interest in his research are prospects for prediction of El Niño and the extratropical response to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies using high-resolution coupled general circulation models of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land surface. Dr. Kinter is also an Associate Professor in the Climate Dynamics Ph.D. Program and the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences department at George Mason University, where he has responsibilities for curriculum development and teaching undergraduate and graduate courses on climate change, as well as advising Ph.D. students. After earning his doctorate in geophysical fluid dynamics at Princeton University in 1984, Dr. Kinter served as a National Research Council Associate at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and as a faculty member of the University of Maryland (teaching faculty 1984-1987; research faculty 1987-1993) prior to joining COLA. Dr. Kinter has served on many national review panels for both scientific research programs and supercomputing programs for computational climate modeling.
Dr. Lai-Yung R. Leung
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

L. Ruby Leung is a recognized leader in modeling regional climate and the hydrological cycle. Her research focuses on understanding and modeling of regional climate variability and change, land-atmosphere interactions, orographic processes, and aerosol effects on the water cycle. She has led important efforts in defining research priorities and needs in regional climate modeling and coordinated community efforts to develop capability in community mesoscale models to simulate regional climate. Her research on climate change and aerosol effects has been featured in Science, Popular Science, Wall Street Journal, National Public Radio, and many major newspapers. Her research crosses scientific disciplines to advance the state of the art in predicting climate change and its regional impacts.
Shawn Marshall
University of Calgary

Shawn Marshall joined University of Calgary’s Department of Geography in January 2000, following Ph.D. and Postdoctoral research at the University of British Columbia (UBC). Since earning a B.A.Sc. in Engineering Physics at the University of Toronto he has been on a progressively geographical path, with Ph.D. work in Geophysics and Postdoctoral work in UBC´s Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences. His research interests are in glacier and ice sheet dynamics, ice-climate interactions, and paleoclimatology.
Wieslaw Maslowski
U.S. Naval Postgraduate School

Wieslaw Maslowski is a research professor of oceanography at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. Dr. Maslowski’s research interests include polar oceanography and sea ice; regional ocean, sea-ice and climate modeling and prediction; mesoscale processes in the ocean and sea ice and their interaction with and impact on general ocean circulation, climate change and climate variability; ocean-ice sheet and air-sea-ice interactions and feedbacks. He is currently leading a DOE-supported research program to develop a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM). Dr. Maslowski earned his Ph.D. from the University of Alaska in 1994.


Linda O. Mearns
National Center for Atmospheric Research

Linda O. Mearns is Director of the Weather and Climate Impacts Assessment Science Program (WCIASP), Head of the Regional Integrated Sciences Collective (RISC) within the Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (IMAGe), and Senior Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. She served as Director of the Institute for the Study of Society and Environment (ISSE) for three years ending in April 2008. She holds a Ph.D. in Geography/Climatology from UCLA. She has performed research and published mainly in the areas of climate change scenario formation, quantifying uncertainties, and climate change impacts on agro-ecosystems. She has particularly worked extensively with regional climate models. She has been an author in the IPCC Climate Change 1995, 2001, and 2007 Assessments regarding climate variability, impacts of climate change on agriculture, regional projections of climate change, climate scenarios, and uncertainty in future projections of climate change. For the Fifth Assessment Report (due out in 2013) she is a lead author of Chapter 21 on Regions in WG2. She leads the multi-agency supported North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), which is providing multiple high-resolution climate change scenarios for the North American impacts community. She has been a member of the National Research Council Climate Research Committee (CRC), the NAS Panel on Adaptation of the America’s Climate Choices Program, and is currently a member of the Human Dimensions of Global Change (HDGC) Committee. She was made a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society in January 2006.
Richard B. Rood
University of Michigan

Richard B. Rood is currently a Professor of atmopheric, oceanic and space sciences at the University of Michigan. His current physical-climate research is focused on bridging the study of weather and climate. He is funded by NASA to study dynamical features as objects and to develop new methods for analyzing climate models. He is also funded by the Department of Energy to study sub-scale mixing processes in climate models. In addition, he has funding to study urban heat waves, human heat health warning systems, and how to govern open source / open innovation communities. He is a co-investigator on Michigan's NOAA-funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center.
Larry L. Smarr
University of California, San Diego

Larry Smarr is the founding Director of the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2), a UC San Diego/UC Irvine partnership, and holds the Harry E. Gruber professorship in Computer Science and Engineering (CSE) at UCSD’s Jacobs School. At Calit2, Smarr has continued to drive major developments in information infrastructure-- including the Internet, Web, scientific visualization, virtual reality, and global telepresence--begun during his previous 15 years as founding Director of the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA). Smarr served as principal investigator on NSF’s OptIPuter project and currently is principal investigator of the Moore Foundation’s CAMERA project and co-principal investigator on NSF’s GreenLight project.

Committee Membership Roster Comments

Note: There has been a change in committee membership with the appointment of Wieslaw Maslowski, effective June 7, 2011. Linda Mearns was appointed to the committee effective November 20, 2010. John F. Mitchell was provisionally appointed to the committee in November 2010 but declined to serve. John C. Marshall was also appointed to the committee effective February 24, 2011, but resigned on April 11, 2011.

Events



Location:

Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center
100 Academy Way, Irvine, CA 92617
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Rob Greenway
Contact Email:  rgreenway@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  202-334-2338

Agenda
Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Meeting #5, November 7-9, 2011

Beckman Center
University of California, Irvine


Meeting objectives:
* Interact with invited speakers;
* Leave meeting with a full draft;
* Discuss and finalize main findings and recommendations;
* Review "Climate Modeling 101" dissemination material;
* Leave with a clear plan going into external peer review

If you are participating via teleconference, call 1-888-640-7748, and when prompted enter the participant code 50165500#.

Monday, November 7

OPEN SESSION: 8:30 A.M. - 11:30 A.M.

8:30 A.M.: Continental breakfast

9:00 A.M.: Running a climate modeling center -- V. Ramaswamy, GFDL (via teleconference)

9:45 A.M.: Data assimilation -- Michele Rienecker, NASA (via teleconference)

10:30 A.M.: Break

10:45 A.M.: Communicating uncertainty -- Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University (via teleconference)

CLOSED SESSION: 11:30 A.M. - 5:00 P.M.


Tuesday, November 8
CLOSED SESSION: 8:30 A.M. - 5:00 P.M.


Wednesday, November 9
CLOSED SESSION: 8:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.

Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

Chris Bretherton
V. Balaji
Thomas Delworth
Robert E. Dickinson
James A. Edmonds
James Famiglietti
Inez Fung
James J. Hack
James W. Hurrell
Daniel J. Jacob
James L. Kinter III
Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Shawn Marshall
Wieslaw Maslowski
Linda Mearns
Richard B. Rood
Larry L. Smarr


The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

Discussion: Does the report fully address the statement of task?
Discussion: Main Findings and Recommendations
Writing Sessions
Check in with group: discussions of key chapter issues
Plan for external peer review
Climate Modeling 101


The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:

Draft chapters

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
December 02, 2011
Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-


Location:

Keck Center
500 5th St NW, Washington, DC 20001
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Rob Greenway
Contact Email:  rgreenway@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  202.334.2338

Agenda
Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Meeting #4, October 3-5, 2011

National Academies Keck Center
500 5th Street NW, Room 204
Washington, DC


Meeting objectives:
-Interact with agency sponsors and other invited speakers;
-Continue writing report;
-Discuss and refine potential conclusions and recommendations

If you are participating via teleconference, call 1-888-640-7748, and when prompted enter the participant code 50165500#.


Monday, October 3

OPEN SESSION: 8:30 A.M. - 5:45 P.M.

8:30 A.M.: Continental breakfast in meeting room

9:00 A.M.: Goals of the meeting -- Chris Bretherton
Questions for the speakers


Session 1 -- International Perspective and Future Science Directions

9:15 A.M.: UK Met Office -- Andy Brown (via phone)

10:00 A.M.: The future of ocean modeling -- Todd Ringler, LANL

10:45 A.M.: Break


Session 2 -- Infrastructure Issues -- Workforce and Software

11:00 A.M.: Human Capital / Workforce Issues -- Jill Karsten, NSF

11:30 A.M.: Climate models in an evolving computational and data analysis environment -- Pete Beckman, ANL

12:00 P.M.: Discussion

12:30 P.M.: Working Lunch


Session 3 -- Institutional Perspectives and Weather-Climate Interface

1:30 P.M.: US Global Change Research Program -- Modeling -- Chet Koblinsky

2:00 P.M.: Office of Management and Budget & Office of Science and Technology Policy -- Stu Levenbach, OMB; Johannes Loschnigg, OSTP; Phil Duffy, OSTP

3:00 P.M.: Discussion

3:30 P.M.: Break

3:45 P.M.: National Centers for Environmental Prediction -- Louis Uccellini

4:15 P.M.: National Aeronautics and Space Administration -- Max Suarez

4:45 P.M.: Coordination of climate modeling research -- D. James Baker

5:15 P.M.: General Discussion

5:45 P.M.: Adjourn

6:15 P.M.: Working committee dinner (location TBA)


Tuesday, October 4

OPEN SESSION: 8:30 A.M. - 11:00 A.M.

8:30 A.M.: Continental breakfast in meeting room

9:00 A.M.: History of Climate Model Development -- Paul Edwards, U. Michigan (via phone)

9:45 A.M.: Observational Capabilities of National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) -- Ted Cope, NGA

10:30 A.M.: Discussion

10:45 A.M.: Break

CLOSED SESSION: 11:00 A.M. - 5:00 P.M.


Wednesday, October 5

CLOSED SESSION: 8:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.
Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

Chris Bretherton
University of Washington
V. Balaji
Princeton University
Thomas Delworth
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Robert E. Dickinson
The University of Texas
James A. Edmonds
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
James S. Famiglietti
University of California
Irvine
Inez Fung
University of California
Berkeley
James J. Hack
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
James W. Hurrell
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Daniel J. Jacob
Harvard University
James L. Kinter III
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Shawn Marshall
University of Calgary
Wieslaw Maslowski
U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
Linda Mearns
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Richard B. Rood
University of Michigan


The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

Review status of chapters
Conclusions and recommendations
Strategies for producing a credible report
Communication and Outreach
Plan for additional writing in advance of November meeting


The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:

None

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
October 31, 2011
Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-


Location:

Ocean Sciences Building
Room 425
University of Washington
1492 Boat Street
Seattle, WA
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Rob Greenway
Contact Email:  rgreenway@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  202-334-2338

Agenda
Wednesday, August 17

CLOSED SESSION: 8:30 A.M. – 10:30 A.M.


OPEN SESSION: 10:45 A.M. – 5:45 P.M.

10:45 A.M.: Welcome and introductions -- Chris Bretherton


10:45 A.M.: Public-Private Partnerships -- Joe Friday (via phone), University of Oklahoma (Professor Emeritus)

11:30 A.M.: CMIP and the Climate Modeling Enterprise -- Karl Taylor, Lawrence Livermore National Lab

12:15 P.M.: Working Lunch

1:15 P.M: The Role of Oceans in Climate Models -- Jim McWilliams (via phone), University of California, Los Angeles

2:00 P.M: Computational and Data Analysis Challenges -- Mike Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

2:45 P.M.: Break

3:00 P.M.: Panel Discussion: Users of Climate Model Information

Erik Pytlak, Bonneville Power Administration
David Behar, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
Gregg Garfin, University of Arizona

4:30 P.M.: General Discussion with Panel

5:00 P.M.: Open discussion

5:30 P.M: Meeting adjourns

6:30 P.M.: Working dinner with committee and guests (location TBA)
Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

Chris Bretherton
Robert E. Dickinson
James A. Edmonds
James S. Famiglietti
Inez Fung
James J. Hack
James W. Hurrell
Daniel J. Jacob
James L. Kinter III
Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Shawn Marshall
Linda Mearns
Richard B. Rood
Larry L. Smarr
Wieslaw Maslowski



The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

Goals of the meeting
Questions for the speakers
Instructions for the working groups
Discuss open session presentations
Chapter working group sessions
Presentations from chapter working groups

The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:

None

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
December 02, 2011
Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-


Location:

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Rob Greenway
Contact Email:  rgreenway@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  202.334.2338

Agenda
Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesa Lab
1850 Table Mesa Dr., Boulder, Colorado 80305

Wednesday, April 27, Main Seminar Room

7:45 A.M.: Shuttle departs from the Boulderado

8:00 A.M.: Breakfast

8:30 A.M.: Workshop Overview -- Chris Bretherton, University of Washington

8:45 A.M.: Welcome -- Roger Wakimoto, National Center for Atmospheric Research

9:00 A.M.: Overview and USGCRP perspective -- Tim Killeen, National Science Foundation

SESSION #1

9:45 A.M.: Breadth of earth system modeling -- Andrew Weaver, University of Victoria

10:15 A.M.: Seamless prediction--weather/climate interface -- Tim Palmer, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (via videoconference)

10:45 P.M.: Break

11:00 A.M: Break out groups

Group 1A, Breadth of ESM
Room TBD
Facilitator: Shawn Marshall
Rapporteur: Bill Collins

Group 1A, Breadth of ESM
Room TBD
Facilitator: Jae Edmonds
Rapporteur: Jeff Kiehl

Group 1B, Seamless prediction
Room TBD
Facilitator: Tom Delworth
Rapporteur: Steve Lord

Group 1B, Seamless prediction
Room TBD
Facilitator: Jim Hurrell
Rapporteur: Arun Kumar


12:00 P.M. Lunch

SESSION #2

1:00 P.M.: Developing climate models in an evolving computational and data analysis environment (hardware/software)? -- Jeremy Kepner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (via videoconference)

1:30 P.M.: Human capital organization, development, and sustainment in an international context: Panel Discussion -- Ricky Rood, Jack Fellows, Tim Killeen, Chet Koblinsky

2:00 P.M.: Break out groups

Group 2A, Hardware/software
Room TBD
Facilitator: Larry Smaar
Rapporteur: Bryan Lawrence

Group 2A,Hardware/software
Room TBD
Facilitator: V. Balaji
Rapporteur: Rich Loft

Group 2B, Human capital
Room TBD
Facilitator: Chris Bretherton
Rapporteur: Cecilia Bitz

Group 2B, Human capital
Room TBD
Facilitator: Ricky Rood
Rapporteur: Scott Doney

3:00 P.M.: Break

3:15 P.M.: Report from break out groups

5:15 P.M: Meeting adjourns

5:30 P.M. : Shuttle departs the Mesa Lab for the Boulderado


Thursday, April 28, Main Seminar Room

7:45 A.M.: Shuttle departs from the Boulderado

8:00 A.M.: Breakfast

8:30 A.M.: Summary of Day 1 / Plan for Day 2

SESSION #3

9:00 A.M.: Observing systems -- Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research

9:30 P.M.: Predictability, credibility, and uncertainty quantification -- Ben Kirtman, University of Miami

10:00 A.M.: Break

10:15 A.M.: Break out

Group 3A
Observing systems
Room TBD
Facilitator: Daniel Jacob
Rapporteur: Graeme Stephens

Group 3A
Observing systems
Room TBD
Facilitator: Inez Fung
Rapporteur: Dave Easterling

Group 3B
Predictability
Room TBD
Facilitator: Linda Mearns
Rapporteur: Claudia Tebaldi

Group 3B
Predictability
Room TBD
Facilitator: Jim Kinter
Rapporteur: Jerry Meehl

SESSION #4

11:15 A.M.: Improving the use of climate model outputs -- Phil Mote, Oregon State University
: : :
11:45 A.M.: Improving the fidelity of climate models -- Dave Randall, Colorado State University

12:15 P.M.: Lunch

1:15 P.M.: Breakout groups

Group 4A
Use of model outputs
Room TBD
Facilitator: Jay Famiglietti
Rapporteur: David Dewitt

Group 4A
Use of model outputs
Room TBD
Facilitator: Jim Hack
Rapporteur: Laurna Kaatz

Group 4B
Climate model fidelity
Room TBD
Facilitator: Ruby Leung
Rapporteur: Peter Gent

Group 4B
Climate model fidelity
Room TBD
Facilitator: John Marshall
Rapporteur: SJ Lin

2:15 P.M.: Break

2:30 P.M.: Report from break out groups

4:30 P.M.: Wrap up: Chris Bretherton

4:45 P.M.: Workshop adjourns

5:00 P.M.: Shuttle departs from the Mesa Lab for the Boulderado


Friday, April 29, Damon Room Room TBA

CLOSED SESSION: 8:00 A.M.-8:45 A.M. (Committee members and NRC staff only)

OPEN SESSION 8:45 A.M.-:30 A.M.

8:45 A.M.: Perspectives from the Intelligence Community Linda Zall
(via conference call)

CLOSED SESSION 9:30 A.M.-1:00 P.M. (Committee members and NRC staff only)




Thank you very much for agreeing to participate in our upcoming community workshop for the NRC Committee on "A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling." Our committee is charged with developing a national strategy for advancing climate modeling over the next 10-20 years. In order to do so, there are a number of challenges that must be faced. Our goal for the workshop is to get input from leaders within the community to deeply understand these challenges and to gather ideas for how to begin to face them.

Break out groups: The focus of the discussion should be on challenges to progress within the specific topics and on ways to overcome those challenges. Rapporteurs are asked to please summarize the discussions of their break out group in a power point slide or short document which they are requested to present to the whole workshop. If Rapporteurs from the 2 concurrent breakout groups on the same topic wish to combine their presentations, they may do so. Facilitators are asked to please assist the Rapporteurs in leading the discussion.

Questions for break out groups:
What do model prediction systems of the future look like?
1a) Breadth of earth system modeling
- What is the level of process representation we can expect in models in 10 yrs? 20 yrs?
- What human activities should be introduced into ESM and how?
- How will ESM with human activities be evaluated?
1b) Seamless prediction--weather / climate interface
- Is it productive to test climate models at weather forecast time scales?
- Is it worthwhile to run NWP models out to decadal time scales?
- What role should data assimilation play?
- Is there a need for a fundamentally separate weather and climate modeling effort?

Infrastructure / support issues--hardware, software, data analysis, human capital
2a) Developing climate models in an evolving computational and data analysis environment (hardware / software)?
- What is the architecture path over the next 10yrs (hardware and software both)? 20yrs? Are there possibilities for hardware/software co-design for climate or Earth system models?
- Are current US climate models positioned to take advantage of this path?
- How does current software engineering evolve with changes in science and hardware?
- How do we maintain a robust global data sharing and collaborative environment?
2b) Human capital organization, development, and sustainment in an international context
- How do we maintain a robust global data sharing and collaborative environment?
- How can we organize and manage our human and computational resources to meet national goals in a sustained manner? e.g., How can we inspire a new generation of climate researchers (workforce development) and overcome sociological barriers to progress?

Improving model predictability, credibility, and uncertainty quantification – confronting models with observations
3a) Observing system
- What observing system is required to validate and initialize/constrain models 20yrs from now?
- What data are most essential? / Are new observations needed?
- What observations are needed to fill the gaps in process studies?
- What data besides physical climate data is essential?
3b) Predictability, credibility, and uncertainty quantification
- What will be improved with increase in resolution?
- Do we expect to reach a limit in predictability simply by increasing resolution? What other aspects must be improved along with model resolution to fully realize the inherent predictability of the system?
- Are there better ways of establishing model credibility?
- Diagnosis of coupled system variability
- How will the overall uncertainty of global climate change as climate and Earth system models evolve?
- How well do CMIP exercises address national needs for climate prediction?

Strategies for climate modeling at the regional scale
4a) Improving the use of climate model outputs
- How can we develop climate information useful to stakeholders?
- What will be the role of regional models and statistical models?
- What can we facilitate the use of high resolution model outputs?
4b) Improving the fidelity of climate models
- What should be the national strategy for the production of high-resolution information at stakeholder level?
- What resolution is feasible and practical for earth system models in 10-20 yrs?
- What will be significantly improved in the representation of the climate system?
- What will be the tradeoffs among model resolution, model physics, and ensemble modeling?






Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

V. Balaji
Chris Bretherton
Tom Delworth
Jae Edmonds
Jay Famiglietti
Inez Fung
James Hack
James Hurrell
Daniel Jacob
James Kinter
Ruby Leung
Shawn Marshall
Linda Mearns
Ricky Rood
Larry Smarr



The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

Reflections from the workshop
Writing plans
Plans for the monthly telecons and remaining 3 meetings


The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:

none

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
June 10, 2011
Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-


Location:

Keck Center
500 5th St NW, Washington, DC 20001
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Rob Greenway
Contact Email:  rgreenway@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  202-334-2338

Agenda
Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Meeting #1, February 10-11, 2011

National Academies Keck Center
500 5th Street, NW
Washington DC 20001

Preliminary Agenda

Thursday, February 10 – Room 109

CLOSED SESSION: 8:00 A.M. – 10:00 A.M. (Committee members and NRC staff only)

OPEN SESSION 10:15 A.M. – 5:10 P.M.

10:15 A.M.: Introductions (committee and guests) -- Bretherton

Federal sponsors of Advancing Climate Modeling (20 minutes each) followed by Q&A

Navy – Admiral Titley
DOE – Gary Geernaert
NSF – Anjuli Bamzai

12:00 P.M.: Working lunch

1:00 P.M.: Federal sponsors of Advancing Climate Modeling (20 minutes each) followed by Q&A (continued)

NASA – David Considine
NOAA – V. Ramaswamy

2:15 P.M.: Committee and agency sponsors discuss statement of task

3:00 P.M.: Break

3:15 P.M.: Perspectives from the USGCRP Interagency Working -- Chet Koblinsky

Group on Modeling

3:45 P.M.: Summary of the 2008 World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction -- Jagadish Shukla

4:15 P.M.: Perspectives from the National Climate Assessment -- Kathy Jacobs

4:45 P.M.: Open discussion -- Bretherton

5:10 P.M.: Open session adjourns

CLOSED SESSION: 5:15 P.M. – 5:45 P.M. (Committee members and NRC staff only)


Friday, February 11 - Room 209

CLOSED SESSION: 8:00 A.M. – 3:15 P.M. (Committee members and NRC staff only)


Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

Chris Bretherton (Chair)
University of Washington
V. Balaji
Princeton University
Thomas Delworth
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Robert E. Dickinson
The University of Texas
James A. Edmonds
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
James S. Famiglietti
University of California
Irvine
Inez Fung
University of California
Berkeley
James J. Hack
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
James W. Hurrell
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Daniel J. Jacob
Harvard University
James L. Kinter III
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Shawn Marshall
University of Calgary
Linda Mearns
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Richard B. Rood
University of Michigan
Larry L. Smarr
University of California
San Diego


The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

Goals of the meeting
National Academies Study Process
Finish composition and balance discussion
Initial thoughts about the study / questions for the sponsors
Plans for April workshop



Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
February 16, 2011
Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-


Location:

Teleconference
Event Type :  
-

Registration for Online Attendance :   
NA

Registration for in Person Attendance :   
NA


If you would like to attend the sessions of this event that are open to the public or need more information please contact

Contact Name:  Rob Greenway
Contact Email:  rgreenway@nas.edu
Contact Phone:  (202) 334-2338

Supporting File(s)
-
Is it a Closed Session Event?
Yes

Closed Session Summary Posted After the Event

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the event:

Chris Bretherton
Venkatramani Balaji
Thomas Delworth
Robert E. Dickinson
James A. Edmunds
James S. Famiglietti
Inez Fung
James W. Hurrell
Daniel J. Jacob
Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Shawn Marshall
Richard B. Rood


The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:

We had everyone introduce themselves and run through the standard conflict of interest and bias discussion.

Next, we had an initial discussion on the statement of task. As with any study, we would like to prevent this study from attempting to take on too much, so properly scoping out our task will be an important goal of our first meeting. During our teleconference discussion, several questions were raised, including:
• How can we parse our task out into sub-areas?
• To what extent will we discuss research needs for observations?
• What are the boundaries of our discussion of timescales? Are seasonal forecasts included?
The plan is to continue this discussion of our task during the 1st meeting. We will be talking with the study sponsors during this meeting, so we will be able to discuss this with them directly at that point.

As part of our study’s task, we are charged with engaging the larger community. In order to attempt to do this, we intend on holding a large community workshop for our second meeting in late April in Boulder. The final part of our teleconference was used to begin outlining how to organize that workshop. The current thought is to invite 30-35 people, which would make a total of ~50 including you all in the committee. The current proposal is for 5 sessions covering individual subject areas in the study, with a session consisting of 2-3 talks plus copious amounts of discussion time in breakout sessions. The end of the workshop would provide a wrap-up of the subject areas and general summary discussion.

The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:

N/A

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary:
January 19, 2011
Publication(s) resulting from the event:

-

Publications

  • Publications having no URL can be seen at the Public Access Records Office