Date: Jan. 25, 2011
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Past Smoking Rates Are a Major Reason For Shorter Lifespans in U.S. Compared to Other High-Income Countries; Obesity Also Appears to be Significant Factor
Over the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the
Three to five decades ago, smoking was much more widespread in the
Because there appears to be a lag of two to three decades between smoking and its peak effects on mortality, one can predict how smoking will affect life expectancy over the next 20 to 30 years. On this basis, life expectancy for men in the
Obesity’s contribution to lagging life expectancies in the
Lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, the report says, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages -- cancer and cardiovascular disease -- available indicators do not suggest that the
Certain risk factors are unlikely to have played a major role in the divergence of life expectancy over the last 25 years, the report adds. Although a large body of emerging work suggests that there may be important connections between the strength of social ties and mortality, the committee that wrote the report found little compelling data to indicate that differences in social networks among people in high-income countries are related to the differing patterns of life expectancy. Similarly, little evidence supports the hypothesis that hormone therapy has played a part in the relatively lower longevity for American women.
The study committee also identified many gaps in research. While lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this report. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which -- unlike randomized controlled trials -- are subject to many biases. While there is no perfect substitute for randomized controlled trials, studies that take advantage of natural experiments, such as increased cigarette taxes or a dramatic change in the use of hormone therapy, can sometimes serve as valuable supplements to them.
The report was sponsored by the National Institute on Aging’s Division of Behavioral and Social Research. The National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering,
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Copies of Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries are available from the National Academies Press; tel. 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242 or on the Internet at http://www.nap.edu. Reporters may obtain a copy from the Office of News and Public Information (contacts listed below).
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Office of News and Public Information
202-334-2138; e-mail <news@nas.edu>
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[ This news release and report are available at http://national-academies.org ]
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries
Eileen M. Crimmins (co-chair)
Associate Dean, Edna M. Jones Chair, and Professor
Samuel H. Preston1,2 (co-chair)
Fredrick J. Warren Professor of Demography
School of Arts and Sciences
James Banks
Professor
Department of Economics
Deputy Research Director
Institute for Fiscal Studies
Lisa F. Berkman2
Director
Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy, Epidemiology, and
Population and International Health
Dana A. Glei
Senior Research Investigator
Center For Population and Health
Noreen Goldman
Hughes-Rogers Professor of Demography and Public Affairs
Acting Director
Office of Population Research
Alan D. Lopez2
Professor of Medical Statistics and Population Health, and
Head
Johan P. Mackenbach
Chair and Professor
Department of Public Health
Michael Marmot2
Director
International Institute for Society and Health, and
Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health
David Mechanic1,2
Director
Institute for Health, Health Care Policy, and Aging Research
Christopher J. Murray2
Institute Director
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and
Professor of Global Health
James P. Smith
RAND Corp.
Jacques Vallin
Emeritus Research Director
Institut National d’Etudes Demographiques
James W. Vaupel1
Founding and Executive Director
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
John R. Wilmoth
Associate Professor
Department of Demography, and
Researcher
Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging
STAFF
Barney Cohen
Staff Officer
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1 Member,
2 Member,