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Date: Dec. 14, 2009
Contacts: Rebecca Alvania, Media Relations Officer
Alison Burnette, Media Relations Assistant
Office of News and Public Information
202-334-2138; e-mail <news@nas.edu>
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Costs Likely to Remain High, Benefits Modest for Decades
The report looks at plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that can operate on electricity for 10 or 40 miles. The PHEV-10 is similar to the Toyota Prius but with a larger battery. The PHEV-40 is similar to the Chevrolet Volt; it has a larger motor and a much larger battery than the PHEV-10. The lithium-ion battery technology used to run these vehicles is the key determinant of their cost and range on electric power.
According to the committee that wrote the report, the maximum number of plug-in electric vehicles that could be on the road by 2030 is 40 million, assuming rapid technological progress in the field, increased government support, and consumer acceptance of these vehicles. However, factors such as high cost, limited availability of places to plug in, and market competition suggest that 13 million is a more realistic number, the report says. Even this more modest estimate assumes that current levels of government support will continue for several decades.
Most of the electricity used to power these cars will be supplied from the nation's power grid. If charged at night when the demand for electricity is lowest, the grid would be able to handle the additional demand for millions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, the report says. However, if drivers charge their vehicles at times of high demand, such as when they get home from work, the additional load could be difficult to meet unless new capacity is added. Smart meters, which bill customers based on time of use, may be necessary in order to encourage nighttime charging. In addition, some homes would require electrical system upgrades to charge their vehicle, which could cost more than $1,000.
Relative to hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will have little impact on
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles emit less carbon dioxide than equivalent conventional vehicles, but not less than hybrids after accounting for emissions at generating stations supplying their electrical power, the report says. Beyond 2030, assuming consumer acceptance, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could account for significant reductions in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, if electricity generation plants fired by fossil fuels were equipped with carbon capture and storage systems or replaced with renewable energy or nuclear-powered plants.
According to the report, a portfolio approach toward reducing
This study was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. The National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering,
Copies of Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies -- Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles are available from the National Academies Press; tel. 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242 or on the Internet at http://www.nap.edu. Reporters may obtain a copy from the Office of News and Public Information (contacts listed above).
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[ This news release and report are available at http://national-academies.org ]
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Board on Energy and Environmental Studies
Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Development of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen
Technology and Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Michael P. Ramage* (chair)
Executive Vice President
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co. (retired)
Professor and Senior Fellow, and
Director of Innovation and Strategy
Research Director
Clean Vehicles Program
President
Conundrum Consulting
Judi Greenwald
Director of Innovative Solutions
Independent Consultant
James R. Katzer*
Manager of Strategic Planning and Program Analysis
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co. (retired)
Gene Nemanich
Independent Consultant
Joan M. Ogden
Professor of Environmental Science and Policy and Energy Policy Analyst
Senior Vice President for Integrated Solutions Sector
Science Applications International Corp. (retired)
Ian W.H. Parry
Senior Fellow
Resources for the Future
Vice President of Research
Ford Motor Co. (retired)
Edward S. Rubin
Alumni Professor of Environmental Engineering and Science
Robert W. Shaw Jr.
President
Arete Corp.
Principal Research Engineer and Project Manager
RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF
Alan T. Crane
Study Director