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Project Title:

Needs and Research Requirements for Land-Change Modeling
PIN: DELS-BESR-10-01        

Major Unit:

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Sub Unit: Board on Earth Sciences & Resources

RSO: Lange, Mark

Subject/Focus Area: Earth Sciences; Environment and Environmental Studies

Project Scope
A National Research Council committee will review the present status of spatially explicit land-change modeling approaches and describe future data and research needs so that model outputs can better assist the science, policy, and decision-support communities. Future needs for higher resolution and more accurate projections will require improved coupling of land-change models to climate, ecology, and biogeochemistry models; improved data inputs; improved validation of land-change models; and improved estimates of uncertainty associated with model outputs. The study will provide guidance on the verification strategies and data, and research requirements needed to enhance the next generation of models. In particular, the study committee will:

1. Assess the analytical capabilities and science and/or policy applications of existing modeling approaches.

2. Describe the theoretical and empirical basis and the major technical, research, and data development challenges associated with each modeling approach.

3. Describe opportunities for improved integration of land observation strategies (including ground-based survey, satellite, and remote sensing data) with land-change modeling to improve land-change model outputs to better fulfill scientific and decision making requirements.

The project is sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

The approximate start date for the project is 10/20/2011.

A report is expected to be issued at the end of the project in approximately 18 months.

Project Duration: 18 months    

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Committee Membership
Committee Membership

 Meeting 1 - 10/17/2011
 Meeting 2 - 02/15/2012
 Meeting 3 - 05/02/2012
 Meeting 4 - 07/25/2012


Reports having no URL can be seen
at the Public Access Records Office
Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements