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Project Title:
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The Fiscal Future of the United States: Analysis and Policy Options
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PIN:
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EGIS-I-07-02-A
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Major Unit:
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Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
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Sub Unit:
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Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies
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RSO:
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Ross, Jane
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Subject/Focus Area:
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Project Scope
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An ad hoc committee will conduct the following tasks and prepare a report.
1) Produce several baseline projections of the federal budget, deficit and debt, based on existing information and on an analysis of the nature and extent of the nation's fiscal and economic conditions. The projections will be based in part, on data from sources such as the Social Security Actuaries, the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget.
2) Produce a fiscal framework and set of guiding principles for the development of policy scenarios and estimates of the effects of selected budget options. The framework could include the target date by which the federal budget would achieve balance and the desired path to close the fiscal gap, which is the amount of spending reductions or tax increases needed to keep debt as a share of gross domestic product at or below today's ratio.
3) Identify values, preferences and concerns that prior research has shown are shared by segments of the American public and use this information to assist in the development of several budget scenarios that are designed to reduce federal deficits or federal debt. The prior research should also take account of alternative views of the roles of individuals and employers in restoring the country's long-term fiscal health.
4) Develop several budget scenarios that will demonstrate various ways to address the fiscal challenge facing the national economy over the next several decades. The scenarios will deal with both the income and expenditure sides of the federal budget. The scenarios will be crafted to take into account information on values, preferences and concerns of the American public and differing views of the roles of individuals and employers.
5) Identify and evaluate options to improve fiscal transparency and discipline in the Federal budget development process.
6) Develop a report that will summarize the methodology and evidentiary base for the projections and provide an explanation of how different values and attitudes have been reflected in the policy scenarios. The report will not recommend a single solution to the structural deficit problem. Its conclusions will be limited largely to providing a framework for understanding the deficit issue and a rigorous methodology for analyzing different policy scenarios.
The project is sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
The approximate start date for the project is January 1, 2008.
A report will be issued at the end of the project in approximately 24 months.
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Project Duration:
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24 months
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Provide FEEDBACK on this project.
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Contact the Public Access Records Office to make an inquiry, request a list of the public access file materials, or obtain a copy of the materials found in the file.
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Tel:
202.334.2000