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Project Title:
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Review of the Tsunami Warning and Forecast System and Overview of the Nation's Tsunami Preparedness
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PIN:
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OSBX-U-07-04-A
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Major Unit:
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Division on Earth and Life Studies
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Sub Unit:
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Ocean Studies Board
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RSO:
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Mengelt, Claudia
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Subject/Focus Area:
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Project Scope
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The committee will review progress towards tsunami preparedness in response to “Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States” (National Science and Technology Council, December 2005) and the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (P.L. 109-424, December 2006). The NSTC report, spurred by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, called for a broad range of federal, state, and local efforts to reduce future losses from tsunamis in the United States. P.L. 109-424 authorized improvements to tsunami warning systems, community-based hazard mitigation programs, public education, scientific research, and international coordination. The committee’s task is divided into two parts as described below.
To fulfill the congressional request in P.L. 109-424, the committee will review the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tsunami Program and assess progress and improvements made since 2005 to strengthen the existing U.S. tsunami detection, forecast, and warning system. The committee will examine the effectiveness of this system for both near- and far-source tsunamigenic events, including:
• Modeling of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation
• Forecast accuracy, warning notification, and dissemination
• Reliability of observing and monitoring networks
• Strategies to ensure long-term operational reliability and sustainability
• Data quality control, management, archiving, and dissemination
• Data acquisition, processing, and assessment for warning generation
• Further modernization and geographic coverage needs
• Probabilistic assessments of tsunami hazard that include data on the sizes and recurrence intervals of submarine earthquakes and landslides near U.S. shores
o Level of coordination and integration with:
o State and local level tsunami programs for facilitating mitigation
o United States ocean and coastal observation systems, including the Integrated Ocean Observing System
o Global observing systems, including the Global Earth Observing System of Systems
• Priority areas of targeted research and development in the U.S. to improve performance and guide modernization efforts
In its assessment, the committee will consider measures in the tsunami detection, forecast, and warning program implemented and planned by NOAA under the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (P.L. 109-424).
In addition, the committee will provide a general overview of national preparedness, based on existing compilations and national assessments including topics such as the following:
• Adequacy of federal coordination and integration with state and local level tsunami programs for facilitating mitigation
• Approaches to risk assessment that account for such things as levels and trends in human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities within tsunami-inundation zones
• Availability of evacuation maps, routes, and structures
• Education and outreach for children, adults, and tourists
The committee will examine a few federal, state, and local mitigation and education activities, including the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program and TsunamiReady Program, to include as specific examples in their overview of the nation’s ability to reduce losses of life and property from future tsunamis.
The committee will comment on how to optimize instrumental warning with these other elements of tsunami preparedness to serve the needs of end-users. The report will highlight opportunities to improve the nation’s tsunami preparedness in the future and identify novel, promising approaches to risk assessment and instrumental warning systems.
The project is sponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the University of Alaska, Fairbanks (UAF), and the National Academies. The approximate start date for the project is 11/01/2007. A report is expected to be issued by the end of the project in approximately 26 months
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Project Duration:
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26 months
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