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Project Title:
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Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies
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PIN:
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AFSB-J-07-02-A
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Major Unit:
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Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
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Sub Unit:
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Air Force Studies Board
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RSO:
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Talmage, Daniel
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Subject/Focus Area:
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Computers and Information Technology; Engineering and Technology; National Security and Defense; Science: Past and Future
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Project Scope
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The NRC will establish an ad hoc committee that will provide technology analyses to assist the in the development of timelines, methodologies, and strategies for the identification of global technology trends. The analyses performed by the NRC committee will not only identify future technologies of interest and their application, but will also assess technology forecasting methodologies of use both in the government and in other venues in an effort to identify the most useful and productive. The duration of the project is twenty four months, two reports will be provided.
Specifically, the committee will in its first report:
• Compare and contrast attributes of technology forecasting methodologies developed to meet similar needs in other venues,
• Identify the necessary attributes and metrics of a persistent worldwide technology forecasting platform,
• Identify data sets, sources, and collection techniques for forecasting technologies of potential value,
• Comment on the technology forecasting approach set forth by the sponsor,
- Comment on the Delta Scan data sets and/or other data sets provided by the sponsor.
• Describe effective "dashboard" techniques for forecasting scenarios,
• From real time data provided by the sponsor:
- Select and comment on emerging technology sectors.
- Advise the sponsor on where and how emerging and persistent technologies trends might become disruptive.
- Provide rationale for selections and indicate what key aspects will influence the rate of development in each.
The first report will be provided in 16 months from contract award. The committee's second report will be delivered during the second year and will expand and refine report one in light of subsequent information provided by the more complete technology analyses anticipated. The statement of task of the final report will be developed in the course of meetings of the NRC staff and sponsor and will be brought back to the NRC for approval.
The NRC will provide a second report to expand upon the Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies’ first report. Specifically, the committee will conduct a workshop to provide expert insight in designing a persistent forecasting system*. The committee will invite expert forecasters and users of forecasting systems, including:
• Experts from a variety of industries (ie: technology, energy, finance)
• Regional experts with knowledge of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas
• Representatives of the United States Government and foreign governments
The workshop will focus on the development of one or more conceptual high-level diagrams of a process that could be used to produce persistent forecasts of disruptive technologies. The final report will include transcripts of the workshop and copies of visualizations created during the workshop. The committee will comment on the insights gained from past committee meetings and the workshop and recommend options for future courses of action in the development of a persistent technology forecasting system.
* Technology forecasting system was defined in report 1 as: Technologies, people, and processes assembled to minimize surprise triggered by emerging or disruptive technologies, in order to support decision making.
The approximate start date of the project was August 2007. The project is sponsored by the Department of Defense. Note (08/10/2009): The project duration has been extended. The first report will be issued by October 2009, and the second report is expected to be issued by March 2010.
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Project Duration:
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24 months
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Provide FEEDBACK on this project.
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Contact the Public Access Records Office to make an inquiry, request a list of the public access file materials, or obtain a copy of the materials found in the file.
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Tel:
202.334.2000