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Project Title:
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Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis
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PIN:
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BMSA-L-06-03-A
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Major Unit:
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Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
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Sub Unit:
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Board on Mathematical Sciences & Their Applications
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RSO:
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Glassman, Neal
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Subject/Focus Area:
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Math, Chemistry and Physics
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Project Scope
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The study will recommend improvements to the methodology developed by the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC) within the Department of Homeland Security to perform bioterrorism risk analyses. The study will issue two reports. The first report, to be released within 6 months of receipt of funding, will identify methodological improvements that can be incorporated during federal FY07. In particular, the first report will address the following tasks:
- Assess the adequacy of the DHS's current methodology as a foundation for the desired risk analysis capabilities;
- Identify any other risk analyses that rely on the major components of the existing methodology, probabilistic risk analysis and multi-attribute risk analysis, and which could guide DHS's future developments;
- Assess the feasibility of incorporating models of second-order economic effects into the methodology during FY07;
- Identify better methods, if any, for handling the high degrees of uncertainty associated with the risk analyses of biological agents;
- Recommend near-term improvements to enhance the transparency of the method and its usefulness to decision-makers.
- Discuss how the methodology could be extended to risks associated with classes of agents, including enhanced or engineered agents that have yet to be developed;
- Discuss the feasibility of extending the methodology to also serve as a framework for risk analysis of chemical or radioactive threats.
The final report, to be issued before the end of FY07 (30 September 2007), will address the following tasks:
- Recommend how the methodology can incorporate changing probability distributions that reflect how various actors (e.g., terrorists, first responders, public health community) adjust their choices over time or in different contexts;
- Recommend further improvements to the consequence analysis component of the methodology, including its models of economic effects;
- Identify any emerging methods for handling large degrees of uncertainty (e.g., fuzzy logic, possibility analysis) that merit consideration for future incorporation;
- Recommend further improvements to the transparency and usability of the methodology;
- Discuss in more detail beyond the first report how the methodology could be extended to risks associated with classes of agents, including enhanced or engineered agents that have yet to be developed;
- Discuss in more detail beyond the first report the feasibility of extending the methodology to also serve as a framework for risk analysis of chemical or radioactive threats.
The project is sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security
The approximate start date for the project is 05/25/2006 - 11/30/2007
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Project Duration:
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18 months
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Provide FEEDBACK on this project.
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Tel:
202.334.2000