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Project Title: Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security

PIN: DBASSE-BBCSS-17-02         

Major Unit:
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Sub Unit:
Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences
Intelligence Community Studies Board

RSO:
Bhatt, Sujeeta

Subject/Focus Area:
Behavioral and Social Sciences; National Security and Defense


Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security
January 24, 2018 - January 26, 2018
Keck Center
500 5th Street, NW
Washington D.C. 20001



If you would like to attend the sessions of this meeting that are open
to the public or need more information please contact:


Contact Name: Renee Wilson
Email: rwilson@nas.edu
Phone: 202-334-2145
Fax:


Agenda:

DIVISION OF BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES AND EDUCATION

Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences

DECADAL SURVEY OF SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
FOR APPLICATIONS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

AGENDA
LEARNING FROM THE SCIENCE OF COGNITION AND PERCEPTION
FOR DECISION-MAKING: A WORKSHOP
January 24, 2018

Keck Center, First Floor
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC
Room 100

8:30 a.m. Workshop Registration Opens

9:00 a.m. Workshops Commence

9:00 a.m. Welcome and Overview of Events
Sujeeta Bhatt, Study Director
Audience information
Paul Sackett, University of Minnesota, SBS Decadal Survey Chair
Welcome
William “Bruno” Millonig, Acting Director of National Intelligence for Science and Technology, Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Sponsor perspective and context for study and workshops

9:30 a.m. Opening Remarks
Jeremy Wolfe, Harvard Medical School, Workshop Committee Chair

9:35 a.m. Data and Analysis in the Intelligence Community
Thomas Fingar, Stanford University

Research Panel Presentations and Discussion

9:55 a.m. Panel 1: Forecasting and Anticipatory Thinking

This panel will discuss methods of improving the accuracy of human forecasts from large dispersed crowds. In addition, it will cover research on anticipatory thinking or mental simulations, planning, and preparing for events. What differentiates experts from novices in both of these domains? What aspects of these skills can be trained? How can people be prepared to forecast and think about a broad range of possible futures, especially low probability, high impact events?

How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available?

Moderators: Sallie Keller, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Barbara Mellers, University of Pennsylvania
Title: Five Ways to Improve Forecasts
Gary Klein, Macrocognition
Title: Introduction to Anticipatory Thinking
Alyson Wilson, North Carolina State University
Title: Prediction and Anticipatory Thinking

10:45 a.m. Discussion and Q&A
Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security

11:45 a.m. LUNCH (cafeteria is on the 3rd floor or food trucks are on 7th St, NW between F and G Streets)

12:45 p.m. Panel 2: Trust

This panel will consider the state of the science on trust in three respects: What is known about an individual’s level of trust with respect to data and sources; with respect to automated analyses – output of machines and models; and with respect to people.

How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available?

Moderators: Fran Moore, CENTRA Technology, Inc.

David Dunning, University of Michigan
Title: Interpersonal Trust: Current Findings and Mysteries
Roger Mayer, North Carolina State University
Title: The Importance of Interpersonal Trust: Now More than Ever
Adam Waytz, Northwestern
Title: Humans and Machines
Victoria Stodden, University of Illinois
Title: Trust in Research Findings

1:45 p.m. Discussion and Q&A
Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security

2:30 p.m. BREAK


2:45 p.m. Panel 3: Perceptual and cognitive constraints on and aids for analysis and presentation

This panel will consider the state of the science on perception and cognition as it applies toward how individuals make sense of information. How do they deal with massive amounts or high dimensional data? What techniques can be used to reduce or analyze data to information that can be used for anomaly detection or decision making? What is known about presentation to make information more memorable? Do certain forms of presentations play into people’s biases?

How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available?

Moderators: Barbara Dosher, University of California, Irvine

Edward Awh, University of Chicago
Title: Capacity Limits in Online Memory and Attention
Danielle Albers Szafir, University of Colorado, Boulder
Title: Visualization and Perception across Scales
Remco Chang, Tufts University
Title: From Vision Science to Data Science: Applying Perception to Problems in Big Data
Peter L.T. Pirolli, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition
Title: Integrated Cognitive Models for Collaborative Human-AI Sensemaking

3:45 p.m. Discussion and Q&A
Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security

4:40 p.m. Closing Remarks from Workshop Committee
Jeremy Wolfe, Harvard Medical School, Workshop Committee Chair
Barbara Dosher, University of California, Irvine
Sallie Keller, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Fran Moore, CENTRA Technology, Inc.
Alyson Wilson, North Carolina State University


5:00 p.m. ADJOURN
________________________________________________________________________________________________

DIVISION OF BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES AND EDUCATION

Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences

DECADAL SURVEY OF SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
FOR APPLICATIONS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

AGENDA (DRAFT, subject to change)
WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
FOR NATIONAL SECURITY PURPOSES:
A WORKSHOP
January 24, 2018

Keck Center
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC
Room 106

8:30 a.m. Workshop Registration Opens

9:00 a.m. Workshops Commence

9:00 a.m. Welcome and Overview of Events
Sujeeta Bhatt, Study Director
Audience information
Paul Sackett, University of Minnesota, SBS Decadal Survey Chair
Welcome
William “Bruno” Millonig, Acting Director of National Intelligence for Science and Technology, Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Sponsor perspective and context for study and workshops

9:30 a.m. Opening Remarks
Noshir Contractor, Northwestern University, Workshop Committee Chair

9:35 a.m. Intelligence Analysis: Characteristics of the Workforce and Workload
Ted Clark, Analytic Director at CENTRA

9:55 a.m. Questions/Discussion with Dr. Clark


Research Panel Presentations and Discussion

10:00 a.m. Series 1: Building a Workforce

This series of presentations examines cutting-edge SBS research that can inform the building and professionalization of the analytic workforce. What does research show to be critical individual-level factors in recruitment and selection of analysts? How do individual differences contribute to team effectiveness? What factors matter in hiring for team success (selecting individuals who will later be assigned to teams - what makes someone generically effective as a team member, regardless of which team they are on)? How do you maximize the utility of training and professional development? How can leadership contribute to analyst skill acquisition, improve analytic outcome accuracy, and motivate the workforce? How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available?

Moderator: Noshir Contractor, Workshop Committee Chair, Northwestern University

Topics to be covered:
Recruiting and Selecting the Workforce
Nancy Tippins, CEB Valtera
Title: Process for recruiting and selecting a workforce

Training the Workforce
Jill Ellingson, The University of Kansas

Motivation and Support of the Workforce through Organizational Leadership
Steve Zaccaro, Workshop Committee Member, George Mason University

11:00 a.m. Discussion and Q&A
Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security

11:45 p.m. LUNCH (cafeteria is on the 3rd floor or food trucks are on 7th St, NW between F and G Streets)

12:45 p.m. Series 2: Systems and Collaborations

This series of presentations will consider the state of the science on current challenges facing the analytical workforce. What are the strengths and limitations to the increased use of technology in intelligence analysis? What are some best practices regarding the use of artificial intelligence, automation, etc. for decision making? What is the latest state of the science on human-system collaborations? How to we maximize collaborative knowledge building within and across the IC? What factors matter in standing up an analytic team? What is the most effective way for analysts to communicate with each other and with decision makers? How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available?

Moderator: Jonathan Moreno (NAM), Survey and Workshop Committee Member, University of Pennsylvania

Topics to be covered:

Human Systems Integration
Nancy Cooke, Survey and Workshop Committee Member, Arizona State University
Title: Integrating the Workforce into the National Security System

Collaborative Knowledge Building
Steve Fiore, University of Central Florida
Title: Developing team cognitive computing to augment collaborative knowledge building

Building a Team
Kara Hall, National Cancer Institute

The Challenge of Communication
Eric Eisenberg, University of South Florida

2:15 p.m. Discussion and Q&A
Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security

3:00 p.m. BREAK

3:15 p.m. Series 3: Trends in Workforce Development

We are living through a fundamental transformation in the way we work. Automation and ‘thinking machines’ are replacing human tasks and jobs, and changing the skills that organizations are looking for in their people. These momentous changes raise huge workforce challenges. The pace of change is accelerating. Workforce ‘talent’ no longer means the same as ten years ago; many of the roles, skills and job titles of tomorrow are unknown to us today. This set of presentations will consider the changing landscape of the workforce and utilization of technology in analysis. What are the most effective strategies to recruit and manage diverse (cognitively, experientially, etc.) talent? How is the global workforce changing? What challenges are on the horizon for the analytic workforce? How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available?

Moderator: Gerald (Jay) Goodwin, Army Research Institute

How to Recruit Diverse Talent (and How to Manage Them)
Scott E. Page, University of Michigan
Title: What do we mean by diverse talent, and how do we leverage it?

Global Trends in Workforce Development (with an eye towards AI and Autonomous Systems)
Andrew Ysursa, Salesforce, Inc.
Title: Evolution of work: Thriving in an age of automation

AI and the Problem of Reproducibility in Science
Brian Uzzi, Northwestern University
Title: Expanding the consciousness of scientists with AI: The case of reproducibility in science

4:30 p.m. Discussion and Q&A
Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security


4:45 p.m. Closing Remarks
Noshir Contractor, Northwestern University, Workshop Committee Chair

5:00 p.m. ADJOURN

_________________________________________________________________________________________________
DIVISION OF BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES AND EDUCATION

Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences

DECADAL SURVEY OF SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
FOR APPLICATIONS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

AGENDA (DRAFT – SUBJECT TO CHANGE)
UNDERSTANDING NARRATIVES FOR NATIONAL SECURITY PURPOSES: A WORKSHOP
January 24, 2018

Keck Center
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC
Room 101


8:30 a.m. Workshop Registration Opens

9:00 a.m. Workshops Commence

9:00 a.m. Welcome and Overview of Events
Sujeeta Bhatt, Study Director
Audience information
Paul Sackett, University of Minnesota, SBS Decadal Survey Chair
Welcome
William “Bruno” Millonig, Acting Director of National Intelligence for Science and Technology, Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Sponsor perspective and context for study and workshops

9:30 a.m. Opening Remarks
Carmen Medina, MedinAnalytics LLC, Workshop Committee Chair

Research Panel Presentations and Discussion

9:35 a.m. Panel 1: Introduction to Narrative Research in the Social and Behavioral Sciences
Moderators: Jeffrey Johnson, University of Florida and Betty Sue Flowers, University of Texas, Austin

Speakers will present on the state-of-the-art in narrative studies and examine cutting-edge questions relevant to national security and intelligence analysis.

Roberto Franzosi, Emory University
Mark Turner, Case Western University
James Pennebaker, University of Texas, Austin
Michael Bamberg, Clark University


10:30 a.m. Audience Q&A

10:45 a.m. BREAK

10:55 a.m. Panel 2: Why Study Narrative? What is the comparative advantage of the study of narrative for national security? How might we study/track narratives comprehensively in real time?
Moderators: Carmen Medina, MedinAnalytics, LLC and David Matsumoto, San Francisco State University

Mark Turner, Case Western University
Pauline Cheong, Arizona State University
Michael Dahlstrom, Iowa State University


11:50 a.m. Audience Q&A

12:05 p.m. LUNCH (cafeteria is on 3rd floor & food trucks on 7th St, NW between F and G Streets)

1:05 p.m. Panel 3: How might artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies affect narratives and their formation? What is the impact of social media on the development and dissemination of narratives?
Moderators: Sara Cobb, MedinAnalytics, LLC and Doug Randall, Protagonist

Babak Rasolzadeh, Former Director of Data Science, Protagonist
Catherine Tejeda, Parenthetic
Michael Young, University of Utah


2:00 p.m. Audience Q&A

2:15 p.m. BREAK

2:25 p.m. Panel 4: What is the relation of narrative to power? How does narrative work as a tool for mobilization and intervention? How do different societies’ narratives vary and sometimes clash?
Moderators: Jeffrey Johnson, University of Florida and Sara Cobb, George Mason University

James Phelan, The Ohio State University
Michael Bamberg, Clark University
Deb Lavoy, Narrative Builders

3:20 p.m. Summative Comments
Karen Monaghan, Central Intelligence Agency (retired)
Josh Kerbel, National Intelligence Council (invited)


3:50 p.m. Audience Q&A


4:50 p.m. Closing Remarks
Carmen Medina, MedinAnalytics LLC, Workshop Committee Chair

5:00 p.m. ADJOURN

The Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security is conducted by the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences and sponsored by:
Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)

CROWD RELEASE: Please be aware that by entering this area, you consent to your voice and likeness being recorded for use on television and in any media now known or hereafter devised in perpetuity, and you release the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine from any liability due to such usages. If you do not wish to be subject to the foregoing, please do not enter this area.
Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security

_____________________________________________________________________
January 25, 2018
Open Session (Open to the Public)

9:00 a.m. Welcome & Study Introductions
• Barbara Wanchisen, Director, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences
• Sujeeta Bhatt, Study Director, Brief welcome to the committee’s 4th meeting
• Paul Sackett, Committee Chair, University of Minnesota, Welcome sponsor

9:10 a.m. Discussion of the Workshops: Committee and Sponsor (sponsor by phone)
• William “Bruno” Millonig, Acting Director of National Intelligence for Science and Technology, Office of the Director of national Intelligence
• Paul Sackett, Committee Chair, University of Minnesota





Closed Session Summary Posted After the Meeting

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the meeting:
Paul Sackett
Kathleen Carley
Noshir Contractor
Nancy Cooke
Barbara Dosher
Jeffrey Johnson
Sallie Keller
David Matsumoto
Carmen Medina
Fran Moore
Jonathan Moreno
Joy Rohde
Jeffrey Taliaferro
Gregory Treverton
Jeremy Wolfe

The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:
Primary messages for the report
Review of Committee’s Approach/Structuring the Messages
Discussion of information collected
Discussion of Report Structure
Assessment of Progress
Discussion of Next Steps and Writing Assignments

The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:
Memo to the Committee
Agenda (Workshops and Committee Meeting)
Biographies of Presenters
Approved Statement of Task
Study Timeline
Notes from 3rd meeting
The IC Challenges
Criteria for topic selection
Updated draft report outline
Sample report models
Status of topic development
Recap of workshop topics and presenters
Statement of task for commissioned papers
Committee Roster
Committee Biographies
Committee Generated Text


Date of posting of Closed Session Summary: February 1, 2018