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Meeting Information



Project Title: A Workshop on Global Change and Extreme Hydrologic Events: Testing Conventional Wisdom

PIN: DELS-WSTB-09-10         

Major Unit:
Division on Earth and Life Studies

Sub Unit:
Water Science and Technology Board

RSO:
Helsabeck, Laura

Subject/Focus Area:
Earth Sciences


A Workshop on Global Change and Extreme Hydrologic Events: Testing Conventional Wisdom
January 5, 2010 - January 6, 2010
National Academy of Sciences Building
2101 Constitution NW
Washington D.C. 20148


If you would like to attend the sessions of this meeting that are open
to the public or need more information please contact:


Contact Name: Laura Helsabeck
Email: lhelsabeck@nas.edu
Phone: 202-334-3422
Fax: 202-334-1061


Agenda:

A workshop on
Global Change and Extreme Hydrology: Testing Conventional Wisdom

The National Academy of Sciences, 2100 C St. N.W., Lecture Room
Sponsored by the National Research Council's Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS)

"Please note that notice of the open session portions of this meeting was inadvertently not posted in advance. The agenda for those open session portions is shown below and is followed by the minutes of what transpired at those sessions."

January 5th: Precipitation and Floods

7:30 Breakfast at your leisure (NAS cafeteria)

8:00 Welcome and Introductions Charlie Vörösmarty, Chair, COHS
Agenda Overview and Workshop Goals Dennis Lettenmaier and Vic Baker, COHS

8:15 Understanding Changes in Precipitation and Runoff with a Changing Climate
Kevin Trenberth The National Center for Atmospheric Research

9:00 Global to Regional Perspectives on Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle: Implications for Extreme Events
Tom Huntington U.S. Geological Survey

9:45 Is Precipitation Becoming More Intense?
Pavel Groisman National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration

10:30 Break

10:45 A Process-Based “Bottom-Up” Approach for Addressing Changing Flood-Climate Relationships
Katie Hirschboeck University of Arizona

11:30 The Ghost of Flooding Past, Present, and Future
Harry Lins U.S. Geological Survey

12:15 Lunch- in the meeting room, all welcome

1:00 Planning for Nonstationary Extreme Events: Statistical Approaches
Rich Vogel Tufts University

1:45 Planning for Nonstationarity and Floods: A Management Perspective
Gerry Galloway University of Maryland

2:30 Break

2:45 Breakout groups
Rapporteurs: Vic Baker and Dennis Lettenmaier

4:00 Rapporteurs report back and summary of research and operational needs

5:00 Break

7:00 Working Dinner The Committee on Hydrologic Science
Discussion of the day’s events
Location: TBD

"Please note that notice of the open session portions of this meeting was inadvertently not posted in advance. The agenda for those open session portions is shown below and is followed by the minutes of what transpired at those sessions."

January 6th: Drought

8:00 Breakfast at your leisure (NAS cafeteria)

8:30 Welcome and Day 2 Agenda Overview Charlie Vörösmarty, Chair, COHS

8:45 Synthesis of Day 1 Dennis Lettenmaier and Vic Baker, COHS

9:00 Mechanisms for Global Warming Impacts on the Large-Scale Atmospheric Branch of the Hydrological Cycle
Richard Seager Columbia University

9:45 Connecting Global-Scale Variability to Regional Drought: Mechanisms and Modeling Challenges
Siegfried Schubert NASA Goddard

10:30 Break

10:45 Do We Need to Put Aquifers into Atmospheric Simulation Models? Evidence for Large Water Table Fluctuations and Groundwater Supported ET under Conditions of Pleistocene and Holocene Climate Change
Mark Person New Mexico Tech

11:30 Breaking the Hydro-Illogical Cycle: the Status of Drought Risk Management in the U.S.
Mike Hayes National Center for Drought Mitigation

12:15 Lunch- in the meeting room, all welcome

1:00 Breakout groups
Rapporteurs Vic Baker and Dennis Lettenmaier

3:00 Rapporteurs report back and summary of research and operational needs

4:00 Adjourn

MINUTES

Global Change and Extreme Hydrology: Testing Conventional Wisdom
Open Session Minutes

COHS members present
Charlie Vorosmarty
Dennis Lettenmaier
Vic Baker
Pete Loucks
Chunmiao Zheng
George Smith

Member of the public and speakers present
Dan Barnhurst
Ana Barros
Doug Bellomo
Geoff Bonnin
Ralph Cady
Jill Caverly
Shyang-Chin Lin (Samuel)
Tim Cohn
Ian Cozens
Ken Fearon
Gerry Galloway
Lisa Goddard
Pasha Groisman
Russ Harmon
Michael Hayes
Mohammad Haque
Katie Hirschboeck
Robert Hirsch
Jin Huang
Thomas Huntington
Julie Kiang
Joseph Kanney
Joe Krolak
Harry Lins
Daniel Mahoney
Henry Manguerra
Robert Mason
Mark McBride
Karen Metchis
Tom Nicholson
Rolf Olsen
Sanja Percia
Mark Person
David Raff
Richard Raione
John Randall
Karen Ryberg
Sigfried Schubert
Richard Seager
Ken See
Dave Shepp
Eugene Stakhiv
Nancy Steinberger
Will Thomas
Kevin Trenberth
Phil Turnispeed
Richard Vogel
Jerry Webb
Kathleen White

NRC Staff present
Anita Hall
Laura Helsabeck
Stephen Parker

Day 1:
The workshop planning committee (Dennis Lettenmaier, Charlie Vorosmarty, and Vic Baker) give an introductory presentation outlining the workshop agenda and goals.

Kevin Trenberth, Tom Huntington, Pavel Groisman, Katie Hirschboeck, and Harry Lins speak on the workshop topic and answer participant questions.

Participants divided into two breakout groups by last name (A-L, L-Z) to discuss the following questions:
QUESTION 1: Is there evidence for changes in extreme:
• precipitation, and
• runoff
over the last half-century (or whether changes have occurred) and how well do we understand their regional specificity over the U.S.?

QUESTION 2: To what degree do other factors beyond climatic forcings regulate the extreme nature of floods, specifically, land cover change including urbanization, the spread of impervious surfaces and loss of wetlands, and engineering works, which can both regulate (e.g. flood control dams) or amplify (e.g. stream channelization)?

QUESTION 3: What are the research needs to better understand the likely nature of changes in extreme precipitation, watershed characteristics, and floods over economic life of engineering structures (typically order 50 years)? How can uncertainty in such estimates be characterized, and used in planning?

QUESTION 4: Should current methods used for engineering design in conditions where loss of life is potentially involved (e.g., of dam spillways) reflect ongoing and projected changes in climate, and if so, how?

Day 2
Richard Seager, Sig Schubert, Mark Person, Mike Hayes speak on the workshop topic and answer participant questions.

Breakout Session
Participants divided into two breakout groups by last name (A-L, L-Z) to indentify three key issues related to this topic.




Closed Session Summary Posted After the Meeting

The following committee members were present at the closed sessions of the meeting:
The following committee members were present for closed session:

Charles Vorosmarty
Victor Baker
and Dennis Lettenmaier.

The following topics were discussed in the closed sessions:
For the closed statement, may I put the following:

The following topics were discussed in closed session.
1. Bias discussion.
2. Brief discussion of the workshop presentations and breakout sessions.
3. Committee assignments for workshop summary.


The following materials (written documents) were made available to the committee in the closed sessions:
None.

Date of posting of Closed Session Summary: January 13, 2010