Committee: Behavioral and Social-Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security

Committee Membership Information


Project Title:	Behavioral and Social-Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
PIN:	BCSS-I-07-01-A
Major Unit:	Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Sub Unit:	Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences
RSO:	Chauvin, Cherie
Subject/Focus Area:

Committee Membership

Date Posted: 07/08/2009

Dr. Baruch Fischhoff - (Chair)
Carnegie Mellon University

Baruch Fischhoff (IOM), Chair, is Howard Heinz University Professor in the Department of Social and Decision Sciences and Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, where he heads the Decision Sciences major. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a B.S. in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His research includes risk communication, analysis and management; adolescent decision making; informed consent; security; and environmental protection. He is a past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis, and recipient of its Distinguished Achievement Award. He is a Fellow of the American Psychological Society and of the American Psychological Association. He is a member of the Environmental Protection Agency Scientific Advisory Board, where he chairs the Homeland Security Advisory Committee; the Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Advisory Committee, the World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism, and the Department of State Global Expertise Program. He chairs the Food and Drug Administration Risk Communication Advisory Committee. He has co-authored or edited four books, Acceptable Risk (1981), A Two-State Solution in the Middle East: Prospects and Possibilities (1993), Preference Elicitation (1999), and Risk Communication: The Mental Models Approach (2001). He is a member of the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Fischhoff has served on many NRC and IOM committees including the NRC Committee to Review the OMB Risk Assessment Bulletin, the IOM Roundtable on Environmental Health Sciences, Research, and Medicine, the NRC Communications Advisory Committee, and the NRC Roundtable on Social and Behavioral Sciences and Terrorism.

Dr. Hal R. Arkes
The Ohio State University

Hal R. Arkes is a professor in the Department of Psychology at The Ohio State University. Dr. Arkes is also a Fellow at the Moritz School of Law, and on the Editorial Board for the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Judgment and Decision Making, Medical Decision Making, and Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. He has a B.A from Carleton College, an M.S. in psychology from the University of Michigan, and a Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Michigan. Dr. Arkes conducts research in judgment/decision making, medical decision making, and economic decision making. Dr. Arkes has previously been President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. He is an elected fellow of the American Psychological Society. He has received the College of Arts & Sciences Outstanding Teacher Award as well as two Provost's Teaching Recognition Awards from Ohio University. Dr. Arkes was a member of the NRC Steering Committee for The Workshop on Decision Making Needs of Older People.

Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
New York University

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Silver Professor of Politics at New York University. Bueno de Mesquita received his B.A. in 1967 from Queens College, City University of New York; his M.A. in political science in 1968 from the University of Michigan; and his Ph.D. in political science in 1971 from the University of Michigan. He is an expert on international conflict, foreign policy formation, and nation building. His current research focuses on the links between political institutions, economic growth, and political change. He is also investigating the causes and consequences of international conflict as well as national security policy forecasting and analysis. His most recent books include The Logic of Political Survival, Predicting Politics, and Principles of International Politics, as well as The Strategy of Campaigning. He is also the author of "The Rise of Sustainable Autocracy" in Foreign Affairs and numerous other policy pieces in major newspapers and magazines concerned with means to promote nation building and the impediments to success. A member of the American Political Science Association, he is also a member of the International Studies Association and the Peace Science Society, and is a member of the board of advisers of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. In 2005, Dr. Bueno de Mesquita was identified in a survey conducted by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the ten most influential political scientists in the foreign policy arena. In 1999, Dr. Bueno de Mesquita received an honorary doctorate from the University of Groningen, the Netherlands. Queens College in New York recognized him in 1998 as one of its one hundred "alumni stars." In 1992, he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Dr. Thomas Fingar
Stanford University

Thomas Fingar is a research scholar at Stanford University. He received his B.A. in Government and History from Cornell University (1968), and his M.A. (1969) and Ph.D.(1977) in Political Science from Stanford University. He recently retired as Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Dr. Fingar’s academic career was primarily at Stanford University, where several research appointments included Senior Research Associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control (CISAC), and Director of the Stanford U.S.-China Relations Program. He served as Assistant Secretary and head of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) for the United States Department of State from 23 July 2004 until May 2005. He is a career member of the Senior Executive Service. Dr. Fingar has published dozens of books and articles, mostly on aspects of Chinese politics and policymaking. As Assistant Secretary in charge of INR, as well as Acting Assistant Secretary (2000-2001 and 2003-2004), he served as principal adviser to the Secretary on intelligence-related issues, supervised analytical work on every country and region as well as transnational challenges such as terrorism and proliferation, ensured that activities undertaken by the Intelligence Community supported the President’s foreign policy, and contributed to coordinated intelligence judgments as a member of the National Foreign Intelligence Board (NFIB). Previous assignments in the Department include serving as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (2001-2003), Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis (1994-2000), Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-1994), and Chief of the China Division (1986-1989). The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) awarded Fingar the 2005 Presidential Rank Award for Distinguished Senior Professional.

Dr. Reid Hastie
The University of Chicago

Reid Hastie is Robert S. Hamada Professor of Behavioral Science in the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago. He has a Ph.D. in Psychology from Yale University. Dr. Hastie has taught at Harvard University, Northwestern University, the University of Colorado before coming to the University of Chicago. His primary research interests are in the areas of judgment and decision making (managerial, legal, medical, engineering, and personal), memory and cognition, and social psychology. He has published over 100 articles in scientific journals on these topics. Currently, he is studying the psychology of investment decisions; the role of explanations in category concept representations (including the effects on category classification, deductive, and inductive inferences); civil jury decision making (punitive damages and sexual harassment); the primitive sources of confidence and probability judgments; decision making competencies across the adult life span; and neural substrates of risky decisions. Dr. Hastie has served on review panels for the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health, and on sixteen professional journal editorial boards. He was a member of the NRC Committee on Future Directions for Cognitive Research on Aging.

Dr. Edward H. Kaplan
Yale School of Management

Edward Kaplan (NAE/IOM) currently serves as the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Management Sciences at the Yale School of Management, Professor of Public Health at the Yale School of Medicine, and Professor of Engineering in the Yale School of Engineering and Applied Science. He obtained his BA from McGill University with First Class Honors in Economic and Urban Geography, and proceeded to graduate study at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where he completed three masters’ degrees (in Operations Research, City Planning, and Mathematics) in addition to his doctorate in Urban Studies. An elected member of both the National Academy of Engineering (2003) and the Institute of Medicine (2004), Kaplan is an expert in operations research, mathematical modeling and statistics who studies problems in public policy and management. His recent research has focused on counterterrorism topics such as the tactical prevention of suicide bombings, bioterror preparedness, and response logistics in the event of a smallpox or anthrax attack. These studies have influenced national and international policy; his work on smallpox was awarded the 2003 Koopman Prize of the Informs Military Applications Society, while his research evaluating suicide bomber detector schemes received the same award in 2005. He currently co-directs the Daniel Rose Technion-Yale Initiative in counterterror operations research. Kaplan has also conducted award-winning research that evaluates the effectiveness of HIV prevention programs while developing new mathematical models for the study of HIV transmission, prevention, and resource allocation. His empirical and modeling research demonstrating the effectiveness of New Haven’s needle exchange program remains among the most creative and important examples of HIV prevention program evaluation to date. Honors for his HIV-related research include induction into the Omega Rho operations research honor society in 2000, the 2002 Informs President’s Award recognizing work that advances the welfare of society, the 1997 Ira Hiscock Award of the Connecticut Public Health Association, the 1994 Lanchester Prize for the best publications in the operations research literature, the 1992 Franz Edelman Award for management science achievement, and the 1991 State of Connecticut Health Department’s AIDS Leadership Award. Kaplan served twice as the Lady Davis Visiting Professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem—in the School of Public Health and Community Medicine in 1994, and in the Department of Statistics in 1997 -- and is also an elected member of the Board of Governors of the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology. For all of his contributions to the operations research profession, Kaplan was designated an Informs Fellow in November 2005. Dr. Kaplan is peer committee Chair of the NAE'S Industrial, Manufacturing and Operational Systems Engineering section, a member of the NRC Naval Studies Board, and was a member of the NRC Committee on Determining Basic Research Needs to Interrupt the Improvised Explosive Device Delivery Chain.

Dr. Gary McClelland
University of Colorado at Boulder

Gary McClelland is Professor of Psychology at the University of Colorado. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Michigan in 1974 and is a Faculty Fellow of the Institute of Cognitive Science. Dr. McClelland’s research interests include judgment and decision making, psychological models of economic behavior, experimental economics, statistics and data analysis, measurement and scaling, mathematical psychology, and graphical data displays on the web and on paper. He has written two books: Data analysis: A Model Comparison Approach and Seeing Statistics and published articles on such topics as optimal design in psychological research, testing treatment by covariate interactions when treatment varies within subjects, continuing issues in the everyday analysis of psychological data, statistical difficulties of detecting interactions and moderator effects, insurance for low-probability hazards, and preference reversals and the measurement of environmental values.

Dr. Kiron Skinner
Carnegie Mellon University

Kiron Skinner is the W. Glenn Campbell Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. She also is an associate professor of international relations and political science at Carnegie Mellon University. Dr. Skinner earned an A.A. in communications from Sacramento City College, an A.B. in political science from Spelman College, and an A.M. and Ph.D. in political science and international relations from Harvard University. She is the editor of Turning Points in Ending the Cold War, a collection of essays by American and Russian statesmen and scholars on events that led to the end of the Cold War. Dr. Skinner is a coauthor of Strategy of Campaigning: Lessons from Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin. This book uses insights and applications from rational choice theory and the framework of comparative presidential studies to investigate how two statesmen once seen as on the political fringe came to commandeer the electoral center. Dr. Skinner co-edited the New York Times best sellers Reagan, in His Own Hand: The Writings of Ronald Reagan That Reveal His Revolutionary Vision for America and Reagan, a Life in Letters. She also coauthored Stories in His Own Hand: The Everyday Wisdom of Ronald Reagan; Reagan in His Own Voice; and Reagan’s Path to Victory. She regularly appears on national and international radio and television as an analyst of U.S. foreign and defense policy. Dr. Skinner’s government service includes membership on the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Executive Panel and the National Security Education Board. She has also served on the U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Policy Board, and has co-chaired the CNO task force on the Middle East and his task force on the new Africa Command. Skinner also serves on the board of the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington. Dr. Skinner is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City. She is the recipient of an honorary doctorate of laws from Molloy College on Long Island.

Dr. Barbara Spellman
University of Virginia

Barbara A. Spellman holds a joint appointment, teaching half of her courses in the Law School and half in the Department of Psychology at the University of Virginia, where she has been since 1997. She has taught psychology and law courses and written extensively on the areas where the two fields intersect. She received her B.A. from Wesleyan University in 1979, her J.D. from New York University School of Law in 1982, her Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of California, Los Angeles in 1993. Her research focuses on higher order cognition, including analogical, causal, and inductive reasoning, inhibition in memory, metamemory, legal reasoning, and social cognition, in particular deception detection and judgments of information source reliability.

Dr. Amy Zegart
University of California, Los Angeles

Amy Zegart is Associate Professor at UCLA's School of Public Affairs and a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. She has been featured by The National Journal as one of the ten most influential experts in intelligence reform. Dr. Zegart received a Ph.D. in Political Science from Stanford University and an A.B. in East Asian Studies from Harvard University. She served on the Clinton administration's National Security Council staff in 1993 and as a foreign policy advisor to the Bush-Cheney 2000 presidential campaign. Since 9/11, she has testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and has provided training to the Marine Corps, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Dr. Zegart's research examines the organizational deficiencies of American national security agencies. Her first book, Flawed By Design: The Evolution of the CIA, JCS and NSC, won the highest national dissertation award in Political Science and has become standard reading for several U.S. military and intelligence training programs. Her most recent book, Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11, examines why the CIA and FBI failed to adapt to the rise of terrorism after the Cold War and won the 2008 Louis Brownlow Book Award, the top literary prize given by the National Academy of Public Administration. She has also written about the role of presidential commissions, organizational problems in nonproliferation policy, port security, and strategic planning in the State Department. Before pursuing an academic career, Zegart spent three years at McKinsey & Company, where she advised senior management in Fortune 100 companies about strategy and organizational effectiveness. Zegart is a former Fulbright Scholar, a lifetime member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy. Her analysis has been featured frequently on national television and radio shows, the New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, and elsewhere.

Dr. Steve W.J. Kozlowski
Michigan State University

Steven W. J. Kozlowski is professor of psychology at Michigan State University. Dr. Kozlowski received his B.A. in psychology from the University of Rhode Island, and his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in organizational psychology from The Pennsylvania State University. Dr. Kozlowski’s research is focused on the design of active learning systems and use of “synthetic experience” to train adaptive skills, systems for enhancing team learning and team effectiveness, and the critical role of team leaders in the development of adaptive teams. The goal of his programmatic research is to generate actionable theory, research-based principles, and deployable tools to facilitate the development of adaptive individuals, teams, and organizations. His research is or has been supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR), Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences (ARI), NASA, Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division (NWCTSD), and Office of Naval Research (ONR) among others. As an advisor, he is a member of the National Research Council Committee on Human-Systems Integration and serves as a member of an expert review group for the Leading Multi-Cultural Teams Program for ARI. Dr. Kozlowski is the Editor (and a former Associate Editor) for the Journal of Applied Psychology. He has served on the Editorial Boards of the Academy of Management Journal, Human Factors, the Journal of Applied Psychology, and Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. He has published over 70 books, chapters, and articles. Edited books include Learning, training, and development in organizations (with Eduardo Salas) and Multilevel theory, research, and methods in organizations: Foundations, extensions, and new directions (with Katherine Klein). He is currently the Editor of the Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology, which is a volume in the Library of Psychology to be published by the Oxford University Press. He is a Fellow of the American Psychological Association, the Association for Psychological Science, the International Association for Applied Psychology, and the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology.

Dr. Philip E. Tetlock
University of California, Berkeley

Philip E. Tetlock holds the Mitchell Endowed Chair at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. He has a Ph.D in psychology from Yale University. Dr. Tetlock conducts research in three general areas. The first area is learning from experience, as in how experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts), and respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations. The second area is designing accountability systems, as in understanding how people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world, and when does accountability promote mindless conformity, defensive bolstering of prior positions, or thoughtful self-critical analysis. The third area is de-biasing judgment and choice, as in how organizations structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence, and the adverse side effects such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making. Dr. Tetlock has served on numerous editorial boards, including the Annual Review of Psychology and the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, and has received awards from scientific societies, including the American Psychological Association, the American Political Science Association and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Dr. Tetlock has been a member of two DBASSE ad hoc groups, the Committee on International Conflict and Cooperation, and the Committee on Social Science Evidence for Use.

Dr. Catherine N. Tinsley
Georgetown University

Catherine H. Tinsley is an Associate Professor at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University, and is the Executive Director of the Georgetown University Women's Leadership Initiative. She received her Masters and Ph.D. in Organizational Behavior from J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University. Dr. Tinsley is a Zaeslin fellow at the college of Law and Economics, University of Basel, and a CPMR fellow for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Dr. Tinsley studies how factors such as culture, reputations, and negotiator mobility influence how people negotiate and how they manage conflict. She studies how near miss events bias people's decisions under risk, and how these biases might be eliminated. She studies the effects of diversity on group performance as well as how gendered expectations differentially influence the behavior of men and women in the workplace and the consequences for their behavior. She is, or has been, on the editorial board of The Academy of Management Journal, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, International Negotiations: A Journal of Theory and Practice, and International Journal of Conflict Management. She has published in Journal of Applied Psychology, Organization Behavior and Human Decision Processes, American Sociological Review, Research in Organizational Behavior, Journal of International Business Studies, Research on Negotiations in Organizations, Negotiation Journal, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, Applied Psychology, International Negotiation: A journal of Theory and Practice, and International Perspectives on Organizational Justice.

Statement of Committee Composition

On April 17, 2009 Scott Atran resigned from the committee.
On April 17, 2009 Andrew Gilmour resigned from the committee.
On July 7, 2009 Steven W. J. Kozlowski, Philip E. Tetlock, and Catherine H. Tinsley became members of the committee.